Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023

THIS IS VERSION WIC3.002 (Beta) (<strong>internal version V12,</strong> <strong>the last one was called v11) </strong>FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE NEW UPDATE. THE OFFICIAL RELEASE DATE WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER, DEPENDING ON COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS FROM OUR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS AND USERS. Short Abstract We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, considering the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization. Changes in version "V12": 1. China's TFR updated in light of recently released lower fertility estimates. 2. International migration flows moderated by discarding extreme flows (six five yearly periods: 1990-1995, ..., 2015-2020) 3. Age-sex specific migration flows for under 15 years adjusted with child-women ratio. 4. Education scenario for SSP1/SSP5 was adjusted, replacing extremely fast progression (Fast-track) with an average of global education trend education (in SSP2) and the Fast-track scenarios. 5. Included Ukraine's refugee migration flows (following JRC's report) 6. Updated Mean Years Schooling with the latest data on school duration from UNESCO 7. Country specific zero net migration by the level of educational attainment implemented (2060-2100), replacing the overall zero net migration. 8. Minor correction of ASFR patterns by smoothing mean age at childbearing.本数据集为WIC3.002（测试版），内部版本号为V12，上一版本为V11，用于新更新版本的内部与外部验证。正式发布日期将后续公布，具体取决于内部及外部合作方与用户的反馈意见与建议。 短摘要 我们基于最新基准信息，更新了全球层面共享社会经济路径(Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, SSPs)的人口与人力资本组分。尽管基于大量分析与专家征询得出的长期假设保持不变，但我们仅对趋势部分进行了调整。首批共享社会经济路径的人口数据基于截至2012年的统计资料，自此以来，多数国家2010年基期的年龄、性别与教育人口结构均发生了变化，这主要源于更新后的最新数据与可靠信息。许多受艾滋病影响的国家以及高死亡率国家的儿童死亡率状况已有所改善。必须考量新冠疫情对人口趋势的影响。在许多国家，生育率的下降速度超出了此前预期。国际移民一如往常般呈现不规则且波动的态势。本次更新纳入了上述变化，并在可操作性层面作出了部分优化。 V12版本更新内容： 1. 结合最新发布的更低生育率估算数据，更新了中国的总和生育率(Total Fertility Rate, TFR)。 2. 通过剔除1990-1995年至2015-2020年共6个五年期的极端移民流，对国际移民流进行了平滑调整。 3. 利用育龄妇女比，对15岁以下人口的分年龄性别移民流进行了修正。 4. 调整了SSP1/SSP5的教育情景：将原有的极速进步（快车道）情景替换为全球教育趋势均值（以SSP2为基准）与快车道情景的平均水平。 5. 纳入了乌克兰难民移民流（参考JRC报告）。 6. 结合联合国教科文组织(UNESCO)最新的学制数据，更新了平均受教育年限。 7. 针对2060-2100年，实施按教育水平划分的国家专属零净移民规则，替代原有的全域零净移民政策。 8. 通过平滑生育平均年龄，对分年龄别生育率(Age-Specific Fertility Rate, ASFR)的模式进行了小幅修正。