IMPACT Projections of Total Production (Million Metric Tons) With and Without Climate Change: Extended Commodity-Level Results for 2022 GFPR Table 2A

Policy makers, analysts, and civil society face increasing challenges to reducing hunger and sustainably improving food security. Modeling alternative future scenarios and assessing their outcomes can help inform policy choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for the exploration of such scenarios. The IMPACT model was used to evaluate impacts of climate change on aggregate food production, food consumption (kcal per person per day), net trade of major food commodity groups, and the population at risk of hunger. At IMPACT’s core is a partial equilibrium, multimarket economic model that simulates national and international agricultural markets. Links to climate, water, and crop models support the integrated study of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis of a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels. IMPACT benefits from close interactions with scientists across CGIAR and other leading global economic modeling efforts around the world through the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). This dataset summarizes results from the latest IMPACT projections to 2030 and 2050, for a scenario that includes the impacts of climate change and a “baseline” scenario that assumes no climate change (for comparison). These results update previous projections by showing aggregations to six regions: Central and West Asia and North Africa; Eastern and Southern Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; South Asia; Southeast Asia; West and Central Africa; and the rest of the world.

政策制定者、分析师与民间组织在减少饥饿、可持续提升粮食安全方面面临的挑战与日俱增。对未来不同发展情景进行建模并评估其结果，可为政策制定提供科学参考。国际粮食政策研究所（International Food Policy Research Institute）开发的IMPACT模型，是一套整合经济、气候、水资源与作物模型的联动系统，可用于探索上述各类未来情景。该模型被用于评估气候变化对粮食总产量、食物消费量（千卡/人·天）、主要粮食商品组净贸易量以及处于饥饿风险中的人口所产生的影响。IMPACT模型的核心为局部均衡多市场经济模型，可模拟各国及全球农产品市场的运行态势。通过与气候、水资源及作物模型的联动，该系统可综合研究不断变化的环境、生物物理与社会经济趋势，从而能够深入分析国家、区域及全球层面政策制定者所关注的各类关键议题。依托农业模型比对与改进项目（Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, AgMIP），IMPACT模型与CGIAR（国际农业研究磋商组织）及全球其他顶尖经济建模团队的科研人员开展密切协作，以此获得有力支撑。本数据集汇总了IMPACT模型针对2030年与2050年的最新预测结果，涵盖包含气候变化影响的情景，以及用于对照的、假设无气候变化的"基准情景"。本次更新的预测结果按六大区域进行了汇总：中亚与西亚及北非、东非与南非、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区、南亚、东南亚、西非与中非，以及世界其他地区。