Does fertility in Brazil and Argentina converge? A focus on inequalities

Abstract The idea of trend in fertility levels towards convergence in Latin America and the Caribbean is widely accepted, both in academic studies and in the underlying assumptions of the population projections in the region. However, little is known about the demographic convergence processes when fertility is decomposed according to variables of social differentiation. The aim of this article is to compare the convergence hypothesis in Argentina and Brazil from 1970 to 2010 through the analysis of the evolution of the Total Fertility Rate by statistical regions, educational levels and socio-occupational categories. Data come from national population censuses and variables were harmonized to allow comparisons between both countries. A variation of the Brass P/F ratio method and the Gompertz relational model was used to estimate fertility levels and measures of convergence was calculated to assess the hypothesis of convergence according to the categories of analysis. The results show evidence of convergence in fertility during the period of study, especially in Brazil, although some cycles of divergence and marked differences between the two countries were observed, particularly those arising from the position in the occupational structure.

摘要：拉丁美洲与加勒比地区生育率水平趋同的趋势，无论在学术研究中，还是该地区人口预测的核心假设里，均已得到广泛认可。然而，当按社会分化变量对生育率进行分解时，学界对其人口趋同过程的了解却十分有限。本文旨在通过分析1970年至2010年阿根廷与巴西按统计区域、受教育水平及社会职业类别划分的总和生育率（Total Fertility Rate）演变情况，对比两国的生育率趋同假说。数据来源于两国全国人口普查，且已对相关变量进行协调统一处理，以支持两国间的对比分析。本研究采用布拉斯P/F比率法（Brass P/F ratio method）与冈珀茨关系模型（Gompertz relational model）的变体估算生育率水平，并计算趋同测度指标，以依据分析类别验证趋同假说。研究结果表明，在本次考察时段内，生育率存在趋同迹象，尤以巴西为甚；不过也观测到若干趋异周期以及两国间的显著差异，尤其是由职业结构层级差异所引发的差异。