Black-white male probability differences.

Building on previous work on the spread and sustenance of crime, we construct and analyze a dynamical systems model of criminal involvement, arrest, desistance, and rehabilitation to be estimated empirically using interviews in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We examine how marginal increases in flows between states interact to decrease or increase the long-run level of crime, and whether this varies by subgroup. We study how observed racial disparities along certain pathways interact to generate macro-level disparities in criminal involvement as measured by arrest and self-report. Finally, we discuss the implications of the model for a broader policy debate on crime control and for competing explanations of the Black-White gap in criminal involvement. We find, among other conclusions, that marginal independent increases in first-time arrest rates (but not arrest rates for repeat offenders) increase long-run crime for all subgroups; that long-run crime levels for Black men are most sensitive to initial flows into crime and arrest and to rehabilitation; and that among people with no arrest history, Black women are significantly more likely than other subgroups to desist the following year.本研究立足已有关于犯罪传播与存续的研究基础，构建并分析了一套涵盖犯罪参与、逮捕、犯罪中止（desistance）与犯罪康复（rehabilitation）的动力学系统模型，该模型将依托全国青年纵向调查（National Longitudinal Survey of Youth）的访谈数据开展实证估计。本研究考察了不同状态间转移流的边际增量如何相互作用，进而推高或压低长期犯罪水平，并分析该效应是否因亚组群体而异；同时探究了在特定犯罪路径上观测到的种族差异如何相互作用，最终形成以逮捕记录与自我报告犯罪情况为衡量标准的犯罪参与宏观种族差距；最后探讨了该模型对更广泛的犯罪治理政策辩论，以及针对黑人群体与白人群体犯罪参与差距的竞争性解释的启示价值。本研究的核心结论包括：首次逮捕率（而非累犯逮捕率）的独立边际提升，会拉高所有亚组群体的长期犯罪水平；黑人男性的长期犯罪水平对初始犯罪与逮捕转移率以及犯罪康复率最为敏感；在无逮捕记录的人群中，黑人女性相较于其他亚组群体，次年中止犯罪的概率显著更高。