Assessing the economic impact of non-communicable diseases in Thailand and its implications for the universal coverage scheme: a human capital augmented Solow growth model

This study employs the Solow growth model with human capital to investigate the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on Thailand's economy from 1995 to 2023. The analysis focuses on two main arguments in production function: the adverse effect of NCDs through human capital (morbidity and mortality) and physical capital (government expenditure). Comparing the transition path of the economy in two scenarios - a counterfactual one in which the government completely eradicates NCDs with zero intervention costs and a business-as-usual alternative in which NCDs continue to affect the economy - evaluates the extent of the impact. The results indicate a reduction of 0.1175 percentage points in average Real GDP growth compared to the counterfactual scenario. Specifically, in 2023, Real GDP declines from 1.9145 trillion United States dollars (USD; at constant 2017 prices) in the counterfactual scenario to 1.7991 trillion USD in the business-as-usual scenario. This reduction represents 9.3889 percentage points of Real GDP in 2019, equivalent to a decrement of 0.1154 trillion USD. These reductions occur through three primary pathways. Morbidity constitutes the most significant pathway through which NCDs exert a detrimental impact on the economy, followed by mortality and government expenditure, respectively. This research also explores the universal coverage scheme (UCS) in the business-as-usual context by comparing two scenarios with and without UCS implementation. These findings demonstrate a positive economic impact, with an observed increase in average Real GDP of 0.0558 percentage points between 2002 and 2023, compared to the scenario without UCS. By 2023, Real GDP experiences a growth of 0.0206 trillion USD compared to the scenario where the government does not implement UCS, accounting for 1.6742 percentage points of Real GDP in 2019.

本研究采用包含人力资本的索洛增长模型（Solow growth model），考察1995年至2023年非传染性疾病（non-communicable diseases, NCDs）对泰国经济产生的经济影响。分析聚焦于生产函数（production function）中的两大核心命题：非传染性疾病通过人力资本（涵盖发病率与死亡率）及物质资本（physical capital，以政府支出为代表）渠道产生的负面影响。本研究通过对比两种情景下的经济转型路径——一是政府彻底消除非传染性疾病且干预成本为零的反事实情景（counterfactual scenario），二是非传染性疾病持续影响经济的常规情景（business-as-usual scenario），以此评估该疾病的经济影响程度。

研究结果显示，相较于反事实情景，泰国实际国内生产总值（Real GDP）的年均增速降低了0.1175个百分点。具体而言，2023年实际国内生产总值从反事实情景下的1.9145万亿美元（按2017年不变价计算）降至常规情景下的1.7991万亿美元。该降幅相当于2019年实际国内生产总值的9.3889个百分点，折合经济损失达0.1154万亿美元。

上述经济损失主要通过三大传导路径实现：发病率（morbidity）渠道是非传染性疾病对经济产生负面影响的最主要路径，其次依次为死亡率（mortality）渠道与政府支出渠道。

本研究还在常规情景框架下，通过对比实施与未实施全民医保覆盖计划（universal coverage scheme, UCS）的两种情景，探究了该计划的经济效应。研究结果显示该计划具有积极的经济影响：2002至2023年间，相较于未实施该计划的情景，实际国内生产总值年均增速提升了0.0558个百分点；至2023年，实际国内生产总值较未实施全民医保覆盖计划的情景增长0.0206万亿美元，相当于2019年实际国内生产总值的1.6742个百分点。