Data from: Forecasting range shifts of a cold-adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Cold-adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high-throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage-specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold-adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.

由于气候变化，耐寒类群正经历剧烈的分布范围变动，预计未来数十年内其气候适宜栖息地将大幅缩减。然而，已有研究提出，拥有充足现存遗传与生态多样性的类群将更能抵御气候变化。这类类群通常在地理空间与生态位空间中分布更广，因此在种群损失的影响波及整体多样性与恢复力之前，它们可能比分布更局限、多样性更低的类群承受更高的种群损失水平。本研究以耐寒植物粉报春（Primula farinosa）为研究对象，探讨种内遗传与生态多样性和未来恢复力之间的潜在关联。我们采用高通量测序技术，评估粉报春不同系统地理谱系的基因组多样性。此外，我们利用当前气候变量定义各谱系的生态位宽度与生态位分化水平。最后，我们校准物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models, SDMs），并将各谱系的气候偏好投影至未来气候场景，以预测各谱系专属的气候适宜栖息地变动情况。本研究预测，耐寒粉报春中遗传与生态多样性最高的谱系，其未来适宜栖息地将相对稳定，但其中4个谱系里的2个谱系的适宜栖息地将出现显著缩减。尽管我们未开展旨在明确遗传多样性与气候变化抵御力之间因果关系的专门实验，但研究结果表明，更高的遗传多样性与更宽的生态位或许能缓冲物种对快速气候变化的响应。本研究进一步强调，整合种内多样性相关知识，对于预测物种应对气候变化的命运具有重要意义。