PiecwiseSEM_code_FINAL.R from Pathways to win-wins or trade-offs? How certified community forests impact forest restoration and human wellbeing

Certified community forests combine local governance with forest certification and aim to serve multiple objectives including forest protection, restoration, human wellbeing and equitable governance. However, the causal pathways by which they impact these objectives remain poorly understood. The ability of protected area impact evaluations to identify complex pathways is limited by a narrow focus on top-down theoretical, quantitative perspectives and inadequate consideration of local context. We used a novel mixed-methods research design that integrates the perspectives of multiple actors to develop a generalized conceptual model of the causal pathways for certified community forests. We tested the model using a combination of statistical matching, structural equation modelling and qualitative analyses for an agroforestry landscape in Tanzania. We found certified community forests positively impacted human wellbeing, equitable governance and forest restoration. Equitable governance had the largest impact on wellbeing, followed by crop yield and forest resource availability. Timber revenues varied widely between villages and the average effect of financial benefits did not impact wellbeing due to the immature stage of the certified timber market. We identified positive interactions and trade-offs between conservation and agriculture. Our findings suggest that no simple solution exists for meeting multiple objectives. However, developing understanding of the pathways linking social and conservation outcomes can help identify opportunities to promote synergies and mitigate negative impacts to reconcile competing objectives.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration’.

认证社区森林（Certified Community Forests）将地方治理与森林认证相结合，旨在实现森林保护、生态恢复、人类福祉与公平治理等多重目标。然而，当前学界对其影响上述目标的具体因果路径仍缺乏深入认知。现有保护区影响评估往往仅聚焦自上而下的理论与定量视角，且未充分考量地方情境，这极大限制了其识别复杂因果路径的能力。本研究采用整合多元行动者视角的创新混合方法研究设计，构建了认证社区森林因果路径的通用概念模型，并结合统计匹配、结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modelling）与定性分析方法，针对坦桑尼亚一处农林业景观开展了模型实证检验。研究结果表明，认证社区森林对人类福祉、公平治理与森林恢复均产生了显著正向影响。其中，公平治理对福祉的影响效应最为突出，其次为作物产量与森林资源可得性。各村域的木材收入差异悬殊，且由于认证木材市场尚处于发展初期，经济收益的平均效应并未对福祉产生显著影响。本研究还识别出保护与农业活动之间存在正向交互作用与权衡取舍关系。研究显示，实现多重目标并无普适性的简单解决方案。但通过厘清联结社会成果与保护成果的因果路径，可为识别协同增效机会、缓解负面影响以调和相互冲突的目标提供有益借鉴。本文隶属于"理解森林景观恢复：强化联合国生态系统恢复十年的科学基础"专题议题。