Development of a tool for hydroeletric reservoir operation with multiple uses considering effects of climate changes. Case study of Furnas HPP

ABSTRACT The possible impact of climate change on the multiple uses that involve the hydro power plant of Furnas was one of the objectives of this study by proposing a methodological approach to mitigate these conflicts. The first stage of the study was to perform a time trend analysis oh hydrologic variables being identified significant increasing trends in some rain gauges not reflected in streamflow data in the study basin. For representation of the future climate the hydrological model (MGB-IPH) was used inputted by the global model HadCM3 and regional Eta model through the A1B scenario of the IPCC. If the climate changes scenarios are verified, the reservoir can be quickly dumped, however the improvement of a methodology that considers the determination of the length and transgression frequency of levels, conflicts over water use can be minimized without damage to power generation.摘要 本研究以评估气候变化对弗纳斯水电站（Furnas）多类开发利用的潜在影响为核心目标之一，并提出了一套可缓解此类冲突的方法论方案。研究的第一阶段为水文变量时间趋势分析，结果显示研究流域内部分雨量站存在显著的降雨上升趋势，但该特征并未在流域径流数据中得到体现。为表征未来气候情景，本研究采用由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）A1B情景下的全球模式HadCM3与区域模式Eta驱动的水文模型MGB-IPH。若气候变化情景得以验证，该水库或将面临快速泄洪的需求；不过，通过优化一套可测定水位变化时长与越限频率的分析方法，可在不损害发电效益的前提下，最大限度降低水资源利用相关的各类冲突。