Prospective scenarios for regional development in Bolivar, Colombia: Great Vision study 2014-2064

Abstract Under the premise on how public policy can contribute to decision-making on the consolidation of the urban-regional system, physical-productive integration, connectivity and social mobility in the Department of Bolivar, Colombia, from its planning with a horizon of 50 years, the study determines strategic recommendations necessary for its competitive positioning before more developed regions in the country. The study intends to visualize territorial planning based on integrating elements such as the culture, geographic characteristics, economic vocation and infrastructure of the Bolivarian territory, based on its great wealth, but a great affectation for the violence of the Colombian conflict, and the forget about centralized development. Based on an integral vision of the department, a long-term perspective means an opportunistic vision supported on transversal and inclusive elements of the territory, leading the discussion towards the feasible application of adjusted prospective planning methodology, and even continental scales of vision in which the region registers but whose processes are very questionable.

摘要
本研究以哥伦比亚玻利瓦尔省（Department of Bolivar）50年规划周期为研究基点，围绕“公共政策如何助力城市-区域系统整合、实体-生产一体化、互联互通建设与社会流动的决策制定”这一核心前提，明确了该区域在国内较发达区域中获取竞争优势所需的战略建议。

本研究旨在依托玻利瓦尔省丰厚的资源禀赋，整合其文化特质、地理特征、经济定位与基础设施等要素，开展区域规划的可视化呈现；但该区域同时饱受哥伦比亚冲突暴力事件的严重负面影响，且长期存在对集中式发展模式的忽视问题。

本研究秉持对该省的整体发展视角，长期视野即依托区域横向联动与包容性要素支撑的机遇型发展视野，推动研讨转向经调整的前瞻性规划方法论的可行落地，乃至大陆级视野的实践范畴——尽管该区域可纳入此类视野，但相关实施流程仍存在显著争议。