Two global ensemble M5.95+ seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain rates and earthquake-catalogue data

Contains two global earthquake-rate forecasts developed by Bayona et al. (2021) to be prospectively evaluated by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The Tectonic Earthquake Activity Model (TEAM) is a geodetic-based model using Version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map (GSRM2.1; Kreemer et al., 2014), while the World Hybrid Earthquake Estimates based on Likelihood scores (WHEEL) is a model obtained from a multiplicative log-linear combination of TEAM with the Smoothed Seismicity (KJSS) model of Kagan and Jackson (2011).

Earthquake densities are expressed as number of M5.95+ events per unit 0.1o cell per year. The forecasts are stored in tab separated value files, with the following fields (the first row of data is shown as an example):

lon_min
lon_max
lat_min
lat_max
depth_min
depth_max
5.95
6.05
...

-180.0
-179.9
-90.0
-89.9
0.0
70.0
4.95e-11
3.97e-11
...

Data and forecasts are described in detail in the following publications:

Bayona, J.A., Savran, W., Strader, A., Hainzl, S., Cotton, F. and Schorlemmer, D., 2021. Two global ensemble seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information. Geophysical Journal International, 224(3), pp.1945-1955.

Kreemer, C., Blewitt, G. and Klein, E.C., 2014. A geodetic plate motion and Global Strain Rate Model. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 15(10), pp.3849-3889.

Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D., 2011. Global earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 184(2), pp.759-776.