Walleye Pollock

This collection contains annual covariates related to walleye pollock spawning phenology and environmental conditions in the Gulf of Alaska (1983–2021). It is used to model how temperature and spawning timing influence the observed and model-predicted walleye pollock biomass. The data is used to study the validity of causal hypotheses in time series models through conditional-independence tests in Thorson et al. (2025). The second dataset of the simulation experiment in Thorson et al. (2025) about wolf and moose populations can be obtained as isle_royale through the R-pagacke dsem Thorson et al. (2024). Task: The dataset can be used to study causal discovery methods. Summary: Size of collection: 2 datasets with dimensions 40x4 and 53x5. Aggregated to 40x5. Task: Causal Discovery Data Type: Continuous Data Dataset Scope: Standalone Dataset Ground Truth: Unknown Graph Temporal Structure: Time Series Data License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Missing Values: Existing Missing Values Features: Year: Calendar year of observation (1970 / 1983 - 2021) Fem30p_wt_logit: Logit-transformed proportion of females >30cm in a spawning or spent stage during the spawning-grounds survey (variable P in the paper) mismatchmed: Average number of days between the mean date of spawning (estimated from larval-derived hatch dates) and the mean date of the survey (variable A in the paper) MAR_SST: March sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Alaska (variable T in the paper) Full_data_pred: Model-predicted pollock biomass using all survey data. Present in the supplementary material but not used in the paper. No_indices_pred: Model-predicted pollock biomass excluding all surveys indices. Present in the supplementary material but not used in the paper. No_survey_pred: Model-predicted pollock biomass excluding the Shelikof spawning survey. Used as denominator to compute Q. Observed3p: Observed survey biomass from the Shelikof Strait spawning survey. Used as numerator to compute Q. The paper's variable 𝑄 is computed as the log-ratio between the surveyed biomass and predicted biomass where the latter is taken from one of the three population dynamics model fitted to the survey data without accounting for timing or temperature. Files: CatchabilityCovariates_2023-03-29.csv: Annual covariates related to walleye pollock spawning phenology and environmental conditions in the Gulf of Alaska expected_shelikof_indices_Jan2022.csv: This dataset contains observed and model-predicted survey biomass indices for walleye pollock in the Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska. It provides the baseline population dynamics model output used to derive the survey availability metric Q. Graph: The estimated dynamic structural equation model is found to be T->A, A->P, A->Q ("Timing as mediator").本数据集集合收录了1983–2021年阿拉斯加湾黄线狭鳕（Walleye pollock）产卵物候与环境条件相关的年度协变量。该数据集可用于建模温度与产卵时间对观测狭鳕生物量及模型预测狭鳕生物量的影响机制。本数据集还可通过Thorson等人2025年研究中的条件独立性检验，探究时间序列模型中因果假设的有效性。Thorson等人2025年研究中关于狼与驼鹿种群的模拟实验的第二份数据集，可通过Thorson等人2024年发布的R包dsem以isle_royale为名获取。 任务：本数据集可用于因果发现方法研究。 数据集集合规模：共2份数据集，维度分别为40×4与53×5，经聚合后维度为40×5。 任务：因果发现 数据类型：连续型数据 数据集范围：独立数据集 真实因果图：未知 时序结构：时间序列数据 许可协议：CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 缺失值：存在缺失值 特征说明： Year：观测对应的日历年（1970 / 1983–2021） Fem30p_wt_logit：产卵场调查中，处于产卵或产后排空阶段、体长>30cm的雌性个体占比的logit变换值（本文中记为变量P） mismatchmed：由仔鱼反推的产卵平均日期与调查平均日期之间的平均天数（本文中记为变量A） MAR_SST：阿拉斯加湾3月海表温度（本文中记为变量T） Full_data_pred：使用全部调查数据得到的模型预测狭鳕生物量，收录于补充材料但未在本文中使用 No_indices_pred：排除所有调查指数后得到的模型预测狭鳕生物量，收录于补充材料但未在本文中使用 No_survey_pred：排除谢利科夫产卵调查后得到的模型预测狭鳕生物量，用作Q值计算的分母 Observed3p：谢利科夫海峡产卵调查得到的观测调查生物量，用作Q值计算的分子 本文中的变量Q为调查生物量与预测生物量的对数比值，其中预测生物量来自3种未考虑时间或温度因素、基于调查数据拟合的种群动力学模型之一。 数据集文件： CatchabilityCovariates_2023-03-29.csv：收录阿拉斯加湾黄线狭鳕产卵物候与环境条件相关年度协变量的文件 expected_shelikof_indices_Jan2022.csv：该数据集包含阿拉斯加湾谢利科夫海峡黄线狭鳕的观测与模型预测调查生物量指数，提供了用于推导调查可用性指标Q的基准种群动力学模型输出 因果关系图：经估计得到的动态结构方程模型因果关系为：T→A、A→P、A→Q（即"以时间作为中介变量"）。