Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.

植物油脂是典型欧洲膳食中能量摄入的重要组成部分。然而，由于其被广泛用作各类食品的配料，且常应用于烹饪环节，其消费量往往具有隐蔽性，难以直接统计。因此，目前尚无针对欧盟消费者膳食中各类植物油脂消费量的可靠估算数据，无法为营养评估、化学风险评估等工作提供支撑。本研究依托欧盟消费数据库与概率建模技术，开发了一款创新性模型，用于估算欧盟消费者的植物油脂消费量。该方法的核心亮点在于对建模假设中的不确定性开展评估，这不仅能够增强用户对模型的信任度，还可为后续的模型迭代与优化提供指导方向。