Probability of falsely detecting a change in .

As detailed in the methods section, a statistical difference was determined by using the likelihood ratio test to compare two transmission models. The first model assigns separate values of to the 1980s monkeypox data and the simulated data, while the second model assigns a single to both data sets. Both models assign a single value of to both data sets. Since the second model is nested in the first, statistical significance was determined by setting a 95% confidence threshold on the likelihood ratio test. Probability values that exceed 5% indicate an over-abundance of false positive detections of change in . Each result was based on 10,000 simulations.如方法章节所述，本研究采用似然比检验（likelihood ratio test）比较两种传播模型，以判定二者间的统计学差异。第一个模型为1980年代猴痘（monkeypox）数据与模拟数据分别分配独立的参数值，第二个模型则为两类数据集分配统一的参数值；两类模型均为两类数据集分配单一参数值。由于第二个模型嵌套于第一个模型之内，因此通过为似然比检验设置95%置信阈值来确定统计学显著性。概率值超出5%时，表明针对某一参数变化的假阳性检测结果过多。每项结果均基于10000次模拟运算。