Parameterizing the robust design in the BUGS language: lifetime carry‐over effects of environmental conditions during growth on a long‐lived bird

1. Since the initial development of the robust design, this capture‐recapture model structure has been modified to estimate temporary emigration, and expanded to include auxiliary information such as band recovery and live resight data using maximum likelihood approaches. These developments have allowed investigators to separately assess individual and group effects on true survival, site fidelity, and temporary emigration. Additionally, recent advances in the BUGS language have allowed researchers to develop increasingly complex, user‐specified models in Bayesian frameworks. 2. The robust design has rarely been implemented in the BUGS language, and previous attempts to parameterize the robust design in BUGS exhibited strong bias in estimates of temporary emigration rates. Given the limitations of current parameterizations of the robust design in Bayesian frameworks, and our research objectives, we have developed a parameterization of the robust design in the BUGS language that produces...

1. 自稳健设计（robust design）初步发展以来，该捕获-重捕模型结构已被修订以估算临时迁出率，并通过极大似然法扩展纳入环志回收、活体重识数据等辅助信息。上述研究进展使得研究者能够分别评估个体与群体对真实存活率、位点保真度及临时迁出率的影响。此外，近年来BUGS语言的技术进步让研究者得以在贝叶斯框架下构建愈发复杂的用户指定模型。
2. 目前基于BUGS语言实现稳健设计的应用案例极少，且过往尝试在BUGS中参数化稳健设计的研究，其临时迁出率的估算结果存在显著偏倚。鉴于当前贝叶斯框架下稳健设计参数化方法的局限性，结合本研究的目标，我们开发了一种在BUGS语言中实现稳健设计的参数化方案，其可生成……