Disruption, continuity and gradualism in Brazilian oil policies: 1995 to 2010

Abstract Problematizing the historical institutionalism tools, this paper aims to understand the changes in the Brazilian oil sector rules. Thus, it analyzes the process that originated the 1997 Oil Act until the approval of the 2010 regulatory framework, showing that such changes occurred by the combination of institutional dynamics: processes that led to ruptures with the status quo, incremental ones associated with processes of continuity with increasing returns. The article contributes to the institutionalist discussion in two points: firstt showing the articulation of institutional strands that are usually applied in isolation - that of continuity and gradualism; and more importantly, it attaches special emphasis to non-institutional elements that explain institutional changes.

摘要 本文针对历史制度主义（historical institutionalism）分析工具展开批判性反思，旨在探究巴西石油行业规制规则的变迁历程。据此，本文剖析了从1997年《石油法案》出台直至2010年监管框架获批的完整进程，揭示出此类制度变迁由两类制度动态共同促成：一类是打破现状的断裂式变革过程，另一类则是与伴随收益递增的持续性进程相关的渐进式变迁。本文在两方面推动了制度主义相关学术讨论：其一，阐明了以往通常被独立应用的两类制度研究脉络——持续性与渐进主义脉络的协同关联；更为重要的是，本文特别强调了解释制度变迁的非制度性因素。