Replication Data for: Presidential Approval and the Inherited Economy

Are leaders held accountable for inherited conditions, and does accountability increase with time in office? I combine hundreds of opinion polls to test how new presidents are rewarded or punished for current economic perceptions, and how these judgments evolve over time. I find the economy influences voter evaluations in a president's first year, that it influences evaluations more so in the second year, and that it does not influence evaluations any more in later years. Surveys of governor approval and state economic conditions yield similar results, as does an original survey experiment exploiting the varying tenure of state governors in the wake of the 2018 elections. While raising questions about voter competence, these findings also suggest leaders have incentives to spread effort more broadly over their terms.

领导者是否会因前任遗留的治理状况而被追责？且追责强度是否随任职时长推移而增强？本文整合了数百份民意调查数据，用以检验新任总统会如何因民众对当前经济状况的感知而获得褒奖或遭受追责，同时探究此类评判如何随时间推移发生演变。研究发现，经济状况会在总统任职首年影响选民的评价，且在任职第二年对评价的影响程度更强，但在后续任职年份中不再对选民评价产生影响。针对州长支持率与州内经济状况的调研得到了相似结论，2018年选举后针对各州州长不同任职时长开展的原创性调查实验也验证了这一结果。尽管这些发现引发了关于选民认知能力的质疑，但同时也表明，领导者有动机在整个任期内更均衡地分配施政精力。