Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage — Article and Replication Materials

This article connects demographic renewal with multinational recruitment control and the operating life of committed capital. Its host-choice argument engages resource bundling and global staffing, distinguishing potential workforce supply from attainable production. Version 3.66.0 integrates a Bayesian comparison of recruitment delivery and location information. Under the existing flat-margin, equal-offer-odds benchmark, preserving UK recruitment has expected value of EUR3.45–8.53 million when the firm can choose the better host with full information. Preserving only intakes after year fourteen adds EUR0.44–1.15 million. These values exclude additional delivery-assurance costs. Perfect information alone avoids the previously reported expected wrong-host losses of EUR0.14–1.00 million. Appendix K11 derives the payoff identities and independently verifies all 312 prior-and-timing specifications. The panel posteriors and conditional case appraisal remain separate: the case values are not estimated from the low positive-response probabilities in the asset models. Existing demographic inputs, panel estimates, priors, propositions and eight figures are retained. No observations or regressions are added. The case values depend on the stated staffing and bid assumptions and do not reconstruct JLR contracts or internal information. Start with Main_Manuscript_ANONYMOUS.pdf, Online_Appendix_ANONYMOUS.pdf and README.txt. Compilable sources, public inputs, code, figure files and aggregate outputs are supplied. The current replication overlay and nine frozen base archives restore the complete permitted replication. Licensed WRDS rows require subscriber access; queries and reconstruction instructions are supplied. Editor-only cover and title pages are excluded.