Predicted wind and solar energy expansion has minimal overlap with multiple conservation priorities across global regions

Protected areas and renewable energy generation are critical tools to combat biodiversity loss and climate change, respectively. Over the coming decades, expansion of the protected area network to meet conservation objectives will be occurring alongside rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure to meet climate targets, driving potential conflict for a finite land resource. Renewable energy infrastructure can have negative effects on wildlife, and co-occurrence may mean emissions targets are met at the expense of conservation objectives. Here, we assess current and projected overlaps of wind and solar photovoltaic installations and important conservation areas across nine global regions using spatially explicit wind and solar data and methods for predicting future renewable expansion. We show similar levels of co-occurrence as previous studies but demonstrate that once area is accounted for, previous concerns about overlaps in the Northern Hemisphere may be largely unfounded, although they are high in some biodiverse countries (e.g., Brazil). Future projections of overlap between the two land uses presented here are generally dependent on priority threshold and region and suggest the risk of future conflict can be low. We use the best available data on protected area degradation to corroborate this level of risk. Together, our findings indicate that while conflicts between renewables and protected areas inevitably do occur, renewables represent an important option for decarbonization of the energy sector that would not significantly affect area-based conservation targets if deployed with appropriate policy and regulatory controls.<br>

保护区与可再生能源发电分别是对抗生物多样性丧失与气候变化的关键手段。未来数十年间，为达成保护目标而推进的保护区网络扩张，与为实现气候目标而快速部署的可再生能源基础设施建设将同步开展，这会给有限的土地资源带来潜在冲突风险。可再生能源基础设施可能会对野生生物产生负面影响，二者的空间重叠可能意味着在达成排放目标的同时，却以牺牲保护目标为代价。本研究利用空间显性的风电与太阳能光伏数据，以及预测未来可再生能源扩张的方法，评估了全球9个区域内当前及未来的风电、太阳能光伏设施与重要保护地之间的重叠情况。本研究得出的空间重叠程度与既往研究相近，但研究表明，若将面积因素纳入考量，此前针对北半球区域重叠问题的担忧或在很大程度上缺乏依据，尽管在部分生物多样性丰富的国家（如巴西），重叠程度仍较高。本研究中提出的两类土地利用（保护区与可再生能源设施）未来重叠情况的预测结果，总体上取决于优先级阈值与区域差异，且表明未来冲突风险或处于较低水平。本研究利用现有最优质的保护区退化数据，佐证了这一风险程度。综合来看，本研究结果表明：尽管可再生能源开发与保护区之间的冲突确实不可避免地会发生，但只要通过恰当的政策与监管措施进行部署，可再生能源仍是能源行业脱碳的重要选择，且不会对基于面积的保护目标造成显著影响。