Variable definitions and data sources.

This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the “animal spirits” extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. This suggests that the “animal spirits” will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.本文采用混频格兰杰因果检验（mixed-frequency Granger causality test）、反向无约束混频数据抽样模型（reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models），结合2006年1月至2024年6月的中国数据，检验消费者信心与宏观经济之间的关联关系。研究结果显示，房地产市场波动、国内生产总值（GDP）以及城镇失业率是消费者信心的格兰杰原因；反之，消费者信心则是居民消费价格指数（CPI）的格兰杰原因。其次，国内生产总值与房地产市场（居民消费价格指数与城镇失业率）对消费者信心存在显著的正向（负向）影响，而工业生产、利率与股票市场的相关指标则无显著影响。其三，从消费者信心提取的“动物精神”无法引发中国宏观经济的显著波动，这表明尽管“动物精神”会对宏观经济产生微弱且不可避免的影响，但并不会主导经济增长。在更换因变量并考虑全球金融危机与新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的影响后，本研究结果依然保持稳健。