CBRN events management and the use of the Hysplit model: an integrative literature review

ABSTRACT The potential risk of exposure of populations to Chemical, Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear agents (CBRN), either by intentional causes or not, is a matter of national security and demands a constant improvement in its management. The models of atmospheric dispersion have been gaining prominence as a tool to support the management of risks to CBRN agents. The objective of this research was to identify and evaluate studies that used the Hysplit model in the context of CBRN events. For this purpose, an integrative literature review of published articles was conducted between 2014 and 2018, from the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Lilacs databases. The analysis of the selected articles revealed the potential of the Hysplit model, as a mathematical model, to understand the transport, dispersion and deposition of CBRN threats released into the atmosphere. The data produced by the simulations generated by this code can reveal which areas will be potentially impacted in a given event or the region of origin of elements dispersed in the air. In addition, Hysplit can be aggregated as a decisions support tool in the different phases of CBRN event management.

摘要 人口暴露于化学、生物、放射与核（Chemical, Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear，简称CBRN）制剂的潜在风险，无论源于故意行为还是意外情况，均属于国家安全范畴，亟需持续优化相关管理工作。大气扩散模型作为支撑CBRN制剂风险管控的工具，正获得越来越广泛的关注。本研究旨在识别并评估2014至2018年间发表的、在CBRN事件场景中应用HYSPLIT模型（Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model）的相关研究。为此，研究团队从PubMed、Scopus、Web of Science及Lilacs数据库中检索文献，开展了整合性文献综述。对入选文献的分析显示，作为一种数学模型，HYSPLIT模型可有效解析释放至大气中的CBRN威胁物的传输、扩散与沉积过程。该模型通过模拟生成的数据，可用于研判特定事件中的潜在受影响区域，或是空气中弥散物质的起源区域。此外，HYSPLIT模型可作为决策支持工具，集成应用于CBRN事件管理的各个阶段。