GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of JMA, 1-month lead time (version 1.0.0)

This layer provides an early warning of extreme temperature conditions over the world based on accumulated intensity of daily temperature exceedances of the forecast with lead times ranging from 0 to 3 months. These are derived from the forecasted daily maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the 10th/90th percentile of the climatology provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The early warning is plotted only when and where the forecast is considered robust (with at least 40% of the ensemble members associated with extreme forecasts) and associated with relative extreme values (based on hindcasts). The colors indicate the return period of the intensity and the coherency of the ensemble members of the forecast model according to the reference period that spans from 1993 to 2016.

本图层基于预见期为0至3个月的预报中逐日气温超阈值的累积强度，为全球范围内的极端气温状况提供早期预警。该预警的计算依据为预报的逐日最高、最低气温，其阈值取自日本气象厅（Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA）通过哥白尼气候变化服务局（Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S）发布的气候学数据集的第10/90百分位值。仅当预报具备足够鲁棒性（即至少40%的集合成员对应极端气温预报）且与基于后报得到的相对极端值相关联时，才会在对应位置绘制该预警图层。图层色彩用以表征强度的重现期，以及1993至2016年参考期内预报模式集合成员的一致性水平。