Extractive Liquidity: Finance and Collapse in Fragile States

Title: Extractive Liquidity: Finance and Collapse in Fragile StatesKeywords: Haiti, institutional collapse, governance substitution, financial sector, education spending, elite containment, V-Dem, property rights, institutional co-production Description:This dataset and accompanying research examine an institutional paradox in Haiti: sustained growth in the formal banking sector amid a prolonged decline in rule of law, judicial independence, and anti-corruption enforcement. Drawing on panel data from major Haitian banks (2003–2019), merged with Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) institutional quality indicators and UNESCO education spending data, the study reveals that capital accumulation in fragile states can persist through informal resilience mechanisms and elite-controlled financial structures. The findings challenge conventional assumptions in institutional and agency theory by showing how elites strategically withhold or channel capital to reinforce stability without enabling democratic reform. In particular, the study shows that private education spending—while correlated with reduced corruption and greater civic participation—is also associated with declines in rule of law and polyarchy. This pattern suggests a strategy of elite containment rather than transformation. The dataset includes longitudinal financial statements for Haiti’s five largest banks, matched to governance indicators and education finance variables. The analytical scripts (in Python) and regression outputs provide a replicable foundation for studying governance dynamics in weak-state environments. This study contributes to international business theory by proposing a multidimensional framework of governance substitution and institutional co-production. It underscores the need for inclusive, bottom-up financial reform and offers comparative policy insights from other fragile states such as Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Venezuela. 🧪 How to Run This Notebook in Google Colab This repository contains the code and supporting data used in the project: Title: Extractive Liquidity: Finance and Collapse in Fragile StatesKeywords: Haiti, institutional collapse, governance substitution, V-Dem, Polity, WGI, elite capture, financial institutions This study investigates the paradox of sustained banking sector growth in Haiti amid institutional breakdown, using data from V-Dem, Polity V, World Bank GDP, and WGI indicators. The notebook performs a filtered, country-level regression analysis of institutional drivers of democracy, using cluster-robust OLS models and multicollinearity diagnostics. ✅ Files Included haiti_democracy_regression_vdem_polity.ipynb — Main notebook (can be uploaded to Google Colab) VDEM_trimmed.csv — V-Dem dataset p5v2018.csv — Polity V dataset GDP.csv — World Bank GDP data wgidataset.xlsx — World Governance Indicators (WGI) dataset 🧭 Instructions for Running in Google Colab 🔹 Step 1: Open Google Colab Go to https://colab.research.google.com Click “File” > “Upload notebook” Upload the file haiti_democracy_regression_vdem_polity.ipynb 🔹 Step 2: Upload Supporting Files Click the folder icon (📁) in the left sidebar of Colab to open the file browser Click the Upload icon (📤) and upload: VDEM_trimmed.csv p5v2018.csv GDP.csv wgidataset.xlsx These will be stored in /content/, which matches the file paths already set in the notebook. 🔹 Step 3: Run the Analysis Click “Runtime” > “Run all”, or press Ctrl+F9 The notebook will: Install required packages (pandas, statsmodels, openpyxl) Import and clean datasets Merge V-Dem, Polity, GDP, and WGI data Filter for Haiti Check for multicollinearity using Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) Run a cluster-robust regression of polity2 ~ v2x_polyarchy + v2x_pubcorr Output VIF scores and a full regression summary 🧠 Method Summary Dependent variable: polity2 (Polity V) Independent variables: v2x_polyarchy, v2x_pubcorr (from V-Dem) Filters: Haiti only Estimator: OLS with clustered standard errors by year Diagnostics: Variance Inflation Factors (VIF)# 标题：《汲取型流动性：脆弱国家的金融与崩溃》 ## 关键词：海地、制度崩溃、治理替代、金融部门、教育支出、精英遏制、V-Dem多元民主指数（Varieties of Democracy）、产权、制度共同生产 本数据集及配套研究聚焦海地的制度悖论：在法治、司法独立与反腐执法持续衰退的背景下，正规银行业却实现了持续增长。本研究依托2003至2019年海地主要银行的面板数据，结合V-Dem多元民主指数（Varieties of Democracy）制度质量指标与联合国教科文组织（United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization）教育支出数据，揭示出脆弱国家的资本积累可通过非正式韧性机制与精英掌控的金融结构得以延续。 研究发现挑战了制度理论与委托代理理论的传统假设，揭示出精英如何通过策略性截留或引导资本，在不推动民主改革的前提下巩固政权稳定。具体而言，研究表明私人教育支出虽与腐败程度降低、公民参与度提升呈正相关，却也与法治水平和多元民主体制（polyarchy）的下降存在关联。这一模式印证了精英遏制而非转型的战略逻辑。 本数据集涵盖海地前五名大型银行的纵向财务报表，并与治理指标及教育财政变量进行了匹配。本研究附带的Python分析脚本与回归结果，为弱国环境下的治理动态研究提供了可复现的研究基础。 本研究通过提出治理替代与制度共同生产的多维框架，丰富了国际商务理论研究。研究强调了包容性、自下而上的金融改革的必要性，并为黎巴嫩、津巴布韦、阿富汗、索马里与委内瑞拉等其他脆弱国家提供了可参考的政策启示。 --- 🔬 Google Colab 运行指南 本仓库包含本项目所用的代码与配套数据： ### 标题：《汲取型流动性：脆弱国家的金融与崩溃》 ## 关键词：海地、制度崩溃、治理替代、V-Dem多元民主指数（Varieties of Democracy）、Polity V政体指数、世界治理指标（Worldwide Governance Indicators，WGI）、精英俘获、金融机构 本研究依托V-Dem、Polity V政体指数、世界银行GDP数据与WGI世界治理指标，探讨了海地在制度崩溃背景下银行业持续增长的悖论。本笔记本采用聚类稳健普通最小二乘（Ordinary Least Squares，OLS）模型与多重共线性诊断方法，开展了针对民主制度驱动因素的过滤式国家层面回归分析。 ✅ 包含文件 1. `haiti_democracy_regression_vdem_polity.ipynb` — 主笔记本（可上传至Google Colab运行） 2. `VDEM_trimmed.csv` — V-Dem多元民主指数数据集 3. `p5v2018.csv` — Polity V政体指数数据集 4. `GDP.csv` — 世界银行GDP数据集 5. `wgidataset.xlsx` — 世界治理指标（WGI）数据集 🧭 Google Colab 运行指南 🔹 步骤1：打开Google Colab - 访问 https://colab.research.google.com - 点击“文件”>“上传笔记本” - 上传文件 `haiti_democracy_regression_vdem_polity.ipynb` 🔹 步骤2：上传配套文件 - 点击Colab左侧边栏的文件夹图标（📁）打开文件浏览器 - 点击上传图标（📤）并上传以下文件：`VDEM_trimmed.csv`、`p5v2018.csv`、`GDP.csv`、`wgidataset.xlsx` - 这些文件将被存储于`/content/`路径下，与笔记本中预设的文件路径一致。 🔹 步骤3：运行分析 - 点击“运行时”>“全部运行”，或按下快捷键`Ctrl+F9` - 笔记本将执行以下操作： 1. 安装所需依赖包（pandas、statsmodels、openpyxl） 2. 导入并清洗数据集 3. 合并V-Dem、Polity V、GDP与WGI数据集 4. 筛选海地样本 5. 采用方差膨胀因子（Variance Inflation Factors，VIF）进行多重共线性检验 6. 执行针对`polity2 ~ v2x_polyarchy + v2x_pubcorr`的聚类稳健回归 7. 输出VIF得分与完整回归结果摘要 🧠 方法概述 - 因变量：`polity2`（Polity V政体指数） - 自变量：`v2x_polyarchy`、`v2x_pubcorr`（均来自V-Dem数据集） - 筛选条件：仅保留海地样本 - 估计方法：采用按年份聚类的标准误的普通最小二乘（OLS）回归 - 诊断方法：方差膨胀因子（VIF）检验