Supporting Data for "Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity" (Tulloch et al. 2020, Global Change Biology)

Overview.Contents are Supporting Data for the article "Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity", published in Global Change Biology. Data are derived from two reviews of the scientific literature.Review 1.Evaluated 99 articles in the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near-term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia. We reviewed peer-reviewed literature (Web of Science, Accessed 7 November 2018) to create a database of articles with the following search terms: (forecast* OR predict* OR project*) AND future AND (climate change OR global change OR anthropogenic change OR weather OR threat) AND (species OR ecosystem*) AND: (manage* OR protect* OR restore*) AND Australia*. Criteria for inclusion in our review were: (a) focused on Australia’s terrestrial, marine or freshwater natural resources; (b) considered a management or planning action; (c) considered objectives beyond economic development or health; and (d) made at least one time-bound prediction of the future state of the system or species. Of the 281 articles, 182 were excluded due to not meeting at least one of these criteria. Review 2.Evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near-term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. We conducted a second review of the peer-reviewed environmental and ecological management literature to determine, for each action, which management outcomes have been impacted by near-term or seasonal issues (e.g. drought, cold/hot temperatures, rainfall). We created an initial database of articles by searching for the following terms in Web of Science (Accessed 14 November 2018): (impact* OR effect* OR response* OR respond*) AND (conservation OR biodiversity) AND (species OR ecosystem*) AND Australia*. Within this database, we then searched for terms specific to each of the eight management actions (e.g. for weed control, additional terms of “weed*” AND (management OR control* OR eradicat*) were used to siphon out articles related to eradicating, controlling or managing weeds in Australia (see Appendix 1 for full list of search terms for each management action and number of articles reviewed). Criteria for inclusion in our review were: (a) focused on Australia’s ecosystems or species; and (b) evaluating the outcomes of a management action to restore or maintain biodiversity. Due to high overlap between weed control articles and habitat restoration articles we decided to combine these two categories, resulting in seven threat management actions and 241 articles for evaluation.概述。本数据集为发表于《Global Change Biology》的论文《生态预报助力生物多样性威胁的近期管理》提供支撑数据，其内容源自两项学术文献综述研究。 综述1：针对99篇环境管理领域学术论文开展评估，以探究澳大利亚是否已开发用于辅助生物多样性决策的近期预报。我们于2018年11月7日检索Web of Science的同行评议文献，构建论文数据库，检索式为：(forecast* OR predict* OR project*) AND future AND (climate change OR global change OR anthropogenic change OR weather OR threat) AND (species OR ecosystem*) AND (manage* OR protect* OR restore*) AND Australia*。本综述的纳入标准为：(a) 聚焦澳大利亚陆地、海洋或淡水自然资源；(b) 涉及管理或规划行动；(c) 考量经济开发与健康之外的其他目标；(d) 至少针对系统或物种种群的未来状态作出一次时效性明确的预测。初始检索共得到281篇文献，其中182篇因未满足至少一项纳入标准被排除。 综述2：针对澳大利亚7类主要陆地威胁的484项管理措施的有效性开展学术文献综述，以识别可用于辅助实操性保护决策的近期预报契机。我们对同行评议的环境与生态管理类文献进行二次检索，旨在明确每项管理措施的成效是否受近期或季节性因素（如干旱、极端冷热气温、降雨）影响。首先通过Web of Science（2018年11月14日访问）构建初始数据库，检索式为：(impact* OR effect* OR response* OR respond*) AND (conservation OR biodiversity) AND (species OR ecosystem*) AND Australia*。随后在该数据库内，针对8类管理措施分别添加专属检索词进行筛选：例如针对杂草防控，需额外添加检索词“weed*” AND (management OR control* OR eradicate*)，以筛选出澳大利亚境内与杂草根除、防控或管理相关的文献（各管理措施的完整检索词列表及纳入文献数量详见附录1）。本综述的纳入标准为：(a) 聚焦澳大利亚生态系统或物种；(b) 评估旨在恢复或维持生物多样性的管理措施成效。由于杂草防控类文献与栖息地修复类文献存在较高重叠，我们决定将这两类合并，最终得到7类威胁管理措施及241篇待评估文献。