Global burden and epidemic trends of chronic kidney disease attributable to high body mass index: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

High body mass index (BMI) is associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, studies on the CKD burden due to high BMI are limited. This research uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of CKD due to high BMI from 1990 to 2021, including mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were calculated, with stratified analyses by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed the trends over 32 years, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted the disease burden for the next 15 years. In 2021, the ASMR and ASDR for CKD attributable to high BMI globally were estimated at 5.06 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2.70–7.51] and 122.08 (95% UI: 66.25–180.18) per 100,000 population, respectively. Significant variations in these metrics were observed across sex, age groups, and regions. Between 1990 and 2021, both ASMR and ASDR exhibited an upward trajectory, with projections indicating a continued rise through to 2040. Our findings indicate that the CKD burden due to high BMI is increasing, with notable disparities across sex, age, and geographic regions. Targeted public health interventions, particularly those focusing on males and older adults, are essential to address this growing health challenge.

高体质量指数（BMI）与慢性肾脏病（CKD）发病风险升高相关，但针对高BMI所致CKD疾病负担的研究仍较为有限。本研究借助全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，对1990年至2021年间高BMI所致CKD的流行病学特征展开分析，涵盖死亡率与伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）两项指标。研究计算了年龄标化死亡率（ASMR）与年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率（ASDR），并按性别、年龄组及社会人口指数（SDI）区域进行分层分析。采用年度估计百分比变化（EAPC）评估32年间的疾病趋势，并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来15年的疾病负担。2021年，全球范围内高BMI所致CKD的年龄标化死亡率与年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率分别为每10万人口5.06 [95%不确定区间（UI）：2.70–7.51] 与122.08（95% UI：66.25–180.18）。研究观察到上述指标在不同性别、年龄组及区域间存在显著差异。1990年至2021年间，年龄标化死亡率与年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率均呈上升趋势，预测结果显示该趋势将持续至2040年。本研究结果表明，高BMI所致CKD的疾病负担正逐年加重，且在性别、年龄及地理区域间存在显著差异。针对男性与老年群体制定针对性公共卫生干预措施，对于应对这一日益严峻的健康挑战至关重要。