In-sample prediction accuracy measures MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and MDA for MKSARMAX, SARMA, SARMAX, additive Holt-Winters, and KARMA models fit of observations from to 138 of the Guarapiranga UV dataset. The best value for each measure is shaded light gray.

In-sample prediction accuracy measures MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and MDA for MKSARMAX, SARMA, SARMAX, additive Holt-Winters, and KARMA models fit of observations from to 138 of the Guarapiranga UV dataset. The best value for each measure is shaded light gray.本数据集以平均绝对误差（MAE, Mean Absolute Error）、均方根误差（RMSE, Root Mean Squared Error）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error）以及平均方向准确率（MDA, Mean Directional Accuracy）作为样本内预测精度的衡量指标，对基于瓜拉皮兰加紫外（Guarapiranga UV）数据集1至138号观测值所拟合的MKSARMAX、SARMA、SARMAX、加法型霍尔特-温特斯（additive Holt-Winters）与KARMA模型进行评估。各评价指标的最优值均以浅灰色底纹标注。