Modelling the Effects of Timber Harvest and Harvest Site Selection on Burn Probability

Climate change exacerbates wildfire risks globally, with projections indicating a significant increase in their frequency and severity. This study investigates the impact of timber harvesting on wildfire likelihood, focusing on the Mount Rose Swanson Sensitive Area (RSSA) in British Columbia, Canada. Using the Burn-P3 model, three scenarios were simulated: no harvest, harvest in high fire threat areas, and harvest in extreme fire threat areas. The Burn-P3 model simulates fire ignition and growth to calculate burn probabilities across the landscape. Results indicate that timber harvesting increases burn probability, with the highest probabilities observed in extreme fire threat zones. Within the RSSA, burn probabilities were consistently higher, reinforcing the vulnerability of this area. The spatial distribution of burn probabilities highlights the localized impact of harvesting on wildfire risk. These findings support the hypothesis that even a 5% harvest within the RSSA escalates wildfire likelihood. Notably, harvesting in extreme fire threat areas yields the greatest increase in burn probability. The implications of these results underscore the complex relationship between timber harvest and wildfire risk, necessitating careful consideration in forest management practices. Addressing these challenges requires a nuanced approach that balances economic interests with ecosystem resilience and wildfire mitigation strategies.

气候变化加剧了全球范围内的野火风险，相关预测显示野火发生频率与严重程度均将显著提升。本研究聚焦加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的罗斯·斯旺森敏感区（Mount Rose Swanson Sensitive Area, RSSA），探讨林木采伐对野火发生概率的影响。本研究采用Burn-P3模型开展模拟，共设置三种情景：无采伐、在高火灾威胁区域开展采伐、在极端火灾威胁区域开展采伐。Burn-P3模型可模拟野火的起火与蔓延过程，以计算整个景观范围内的燃烧概率。研究结果显示，林木采伐会提升燃烧概率，极端火灾威胁区域的燃烧概率最高。在RSSA范围内，燃烧概率始终处于较高水平，进一步凸显了该区域的生态脆弱性。燃烧概率的空间分布特征清晰体现了采伐活动对野火风险的局地影响。本研究结果验证了相关假说：即便在RSSA内仅开展5%的采伐活动，也会提升野火发生概率。值得注意的是，在极端火灾威胁区域开展采伐，会带来燃烧概率的最大幅度提升。上述研究结果凸显了林木采伐与野火风险之间的复杂关联，要求森林管理实践中审慎考量相关因素。应对此类挑战，需采取精细化的治理路径，在经济利益、生态系统韧性与野火防控策略之间实现平衡。