Twelve Years of Unconventional Development - Results of Cash flow Sensitivity Analysis on Price and Cost

This dataset was generated for research on twelve years of unconventional development. Five major unconventional formations in the US were studied: the Bakken, Eagleford, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Wolfcamp formations. The Bakken, Eagleford, and Wolfcamp produce oil as the major fluid phase while the Marcellus and Haynesville are gas plays. We developed 16 type curves per formation for wells completed in 2008 - 2019 (one curve per year excluding 2019 due to insufficient data) and identified four developmental phases of unconventional development over the past 12 years during which D&C technology, initial investment, and commodity prices were similar: Early development phase (Phase 1), Pre-downturn phase (Phase 2), Downturn phase (Phase 3), and Post downturn phase (Phase 4) - four additional curves. One overall type curve for each formation was also generated. The data shown below are the result of a financial performance analysis carried out. Using historical investment data and the generated type curves from historical production data, the financial performance of the wells for the next 15 years was studied using the following variable scenarios: Variable Value Min Max Oil Price ($/bbl) 60 20 100 Gas Price ($/Mcf) 3 1 6 Oil Opex ($/bbl) 5 2.5 10 Gas Opex ($/Mcf) 2 1 4 Water Opex ($/bbl) 3 - - Fixed cost ($/month) 2000 1000 4000 Working Interest 100% - - Royalty Burden 12.5% - - Discount Rate 10% 0% 100% Economic analysis was performed using the discounted cash flow model. At the end of each run, we extract some economic measures (explained in the introduction section) like the net cash flow (NCF), discounted net cash flow or net present value (NPV) at different investment opportunity (or discount) rates (𝑖𝑜𝑝), rate of return (ROR), payout, discounted and undiscounted return on investment (ROI) and the estimated oil and gas recoveries (EURs) at the economic limit. In addition, the type curve parameters used for each case were reported. NA value means that the case was uneconomic and hence those parameters evaluated to NA.

本数据集专为十二年非常规油气开发研究构建。本次研究覆盖美国五大核心非常规油气地层：巴肯（Bakken）、伊格尔福特（Eagleford）、海恩斯维尔（Haynesville）、马塞勒斯（Marcellus）与沃尔夫坎普（Wolfcamp）地层。其中巴肯、伊格尔福特及沃尔夫坎普地层以原油生产为主，马塞勒斯与海恩斯维尔地层则以天然气生产为主。

针对2008至2019年完钻的生产井，我们为每个地层构建了16条典型曲线（type curve）：其中按完钻年份生成11条年度典型曲线（2019年因数据量不足未纳入统计）；同时结合过去12年非常规开发的四个阶段——各阶段的钻完井（Drilling and Completion, D&C）技术、初始投资与商品价格水平均较为接近，分别为开发初期（阶段1）、回暖前期（阶段2）、下行期（阶段3）与回暖后期（阶段4）——生成4条阶段典型曲线；此外还构建了1条全维度整体典型曲线，总计16条。

本数据集后续展示的内容为财务绩效分析的最终结果。我们基于历史投资数据与由历史生产数据生成的典型曲线，通过以下可变参数情景，对单井未来15年的财务绩效展开模拟研究：
参数类别 | 基准值 | 最小值 | 最大值
-------------------------|-----------------------|--------|-----------------
原油价格（美元/桶） | 60 | 20 | 100
天然气价格（美元/千立方英尺） | 3 | 1 | 6
石油作业成本（美元/桶） | 5 | 2.5 | 10
天然气作业成本（美元/千立方英尺） | 2 | 1 | 4
水处理作业成本（美元/桶） | 3 | 未明确设定 | 未明确设定
月度固定成本（美元/月） | 2000 | 1000 | 4000
作业权益比例 | 100% | 未明确设定 | 未明确设定
矿区使用费负担比例 | 12.5% | 未明确设定 | 未明确设定
折现率 | 10% | 0% | 100%

本次经济分析采用折现现金流模型（discounted cash flow model）。每次模拟运行结束后，我们将提取多项经济指标（详见研究引言部分），包括不同投资机会（或折现）率下的净现金流（NCF）、折现净现金流即净现值（NPV）、内部收益率（ROR）、投资回收期、折现与未折现投资回报率（ROI），以及经济极限条件下的估算油气可采储量（Estimated Ultimate Recovery, EURs）。此外，还将记录各模拟案例所使用的典型曲线参数。若某案例不具备经济价值，则其对应参数将标记为NA（不可用）。