Growth of local industrial employment in Brazil: does the degree of specialization by technological intensity matter?

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to revisit the debate on the degree of specialization and industrial diversification and the growth of local manufacturing employment in Brazil. A matrix of sectoral spillovers is built in which it is verified whether sectors, grouped by technological intensity, influence the performance of disaggregated manufacturing groups. Spatial data panel techniques are used to control non-observed local effects and possible spatial dependence over the period 1995-2014. The results show that specializations in low-technology manufacturing groups create stimulus for several other manufacturing groups regardless of the level of technological intensity. The spillovers coming from high technology manufacturing industries are less frequent, though they also occur depending on the industrial manufacturing group considered. In general, sectors of higher and lower technological intensity flourish with the presence of MAR externalities. We conclude that the diversification/specialization debate can vary considerably, requiring specific industrial and regional policies by manufacturing industries.

摘要 本文旨在重新审视关于巴西本地制造业就业增长以及产业专业化与多元化程度的相关争论。本文构建部门溢出效应矩阵，以检验按技术密集度分组的各部门是否会对细分制造业组别绩效产生影响。研究采用空间面板数据计量方法，对1995-2014年期间的非观测本地效应与潜在空间相关性进行控制。研究结果表明，低技术密集型制造业组别的专业化发展，会对其他多个制造业组别产生带动效应，且不受对方技术密集度水平的制约。而高技术密集型制造业产生的溢出效应发生频率相对较低，但同样会因所考察的制造业组别不同而存在差异。总体而言，无论技术密集度高低，制造业部门在MAR外部性（MAR externalities）的作用下均能实现蓬勃发展。综上，关于产业多元化与专业化的相关争论存在显著异质性，因此制造业需制定针对性的产业与区域政策。