GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of ECCC, 3-month lead time (version 1.0.0)

This layer provides an early warning of extreme temperature conditions over the world based on accumulated intensity of daily temperature exceedances of the forecast with lead times ranging from 0 to 3 months. These are derived from the forecasted daily maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the 10th/90th percentile of the climatology provided by the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The early warning is plotted only when and where the forecast is considered robust (with at least 40% of the ensemble members associated with extreme forecasts) and associated with relative extreme values (based on hindcasts). The colors indicate the return period of the intensity and the coherency of the ensemble members of the forecast model according to the reference period that spans from 1993 to 2016.

本图层基于预报中每日最高、最低气温超气候态阈值的累积强度，为全球范围内的极端气温状况提供提前0至3个月的预警。该预警的计算依据为：由加拿大环境与气候变化部（Environment and Climate Change Canada, ECCC）通过哥白尼气候变化服务（Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S）提供的气候态第10/90百分位阈值，结合预报的每日最高、最低气温推导得出。仅当预报被认定为可靠（即至少40%的集合成员对应极端预报结果）且与基于回报试验得到的相对极端值相关联时，才会绘制该预警图层。颜色用于表征强度的重现期，以及1993至2016年参考时段内预报模式集合成员的一致性。