Replication Data for: The rise and fall of party leaders: exploring leadership selection, re-selection, and de-selection using qualitative comparative analysis

The main purpose of this article is to detect the reasons for party leaders’ persistence or departure from the office, starting from the moment they are selected or re-selected. More specifically, we try to assess which (if any) characteristics of the leadership race (LR) called to appoint (or re-appoint) the party leader, in combination with other conditions, could favour leadership re-selection in office at the end of the term, rather than a more or less forced early departure. To this end, we have investigated all the LRs promoted by both bigger and smaller parties in four Western European countries over the last three decades. Bridging the literature on leadership selection and leadership survival, we built a theoretical framework that allowed us to turn to an original methodological approach in the field – Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA)– to unravel asymmetrical, equi-final and conjunctural causation by looking at the combinations of conditions leading to the outcome, namely re-selection or departure from the office.Specifically, we identified five main conditions which are likely to affect the outcome, both alone and in combination with each other: whether there is an outgoing leader running for re-election (incumbency); a broad inclusiveness of the LR called to appoint the party leader; large victory (namely low competitiveness for contested LR or high approval rates for coronation of a single candidate); participation in government during the leadership tenure; and party electoral support (‘big’ mainstream vs. ‘small’ niche/challenger parties).

本文核心宗旨为探究政党领导人自当选或连任就职之时起，持续任职或离任职务的动因。具体而言，本文旨在评估：为任命（或连任任命）政党领导人而开展的领导力竞选（Leadership Race, LR）具备哪些特征（若存在），结合其他相关条件，能够助力领导人在任期届满时获得连任任职，而非遭遇不同程度的被迫提前离任。为此，本文调研了过去三十年间，西欧四国境内大小政党所发起的全部领导力竞选活动。本文衔接领导力遴选与领导力存续相关研究脉络，构建了一套理论分析框架，得以采用本领域首创的研究方法——定性比较分析（Qualitative Comparative Analysis, QCA）——通过剖析引发最终结果（即连任或离任职务）的条件组合，揭示非对称、等效与构型因果关系。具体而言，本文确定了五类可能单独或相互结合影响最终结果的核心条件：一是卸任领导人是否参与连任竞选（即现任身份）；二是本次政党领导人任命竞选的包容性广度；三是选举胜出幅度（即竞争型竞选的低竞争性，或单一候选人"加冕"时的高支持率）；四是领导人任职期间政党是否参与执政；五是政党的选举支持基础（即"大型"主流政党与"小型"利基/挑战者政党之分）。