Replication Data for: When Disasters Hit Civil Wars: Natural Resource Exploitation and Rebel Group Resilience

Existing literature on the relationship between natural disasters and conflicts provides mixed findings. In this article, we argue that whether natural disasters hurt rebel group resilience depends on their funding source and the mode of resource extraction. Rebel groups that obtain their funding from natural resources are more susceptible to natural disasters because this funding source could be easily disrupted by rapid-onset disasters. How rebel groups exploit natural resource wealth also conditions the effect of natural disasters on rebel group resilience. Rebel groups that depend on extorting resource production, despite having a seemingly stable revenue stream, are more likely to face funding cuts after a severe natural disaster. In contrast, rebel groups that rely on smuggling natural resources, due to a higher level of flexibility and mobility, are more likely to survive natural disasters. We test our arguments using data on armed groups, natural disasters, and rebel contraband, and the results of the logit models with interaction terms support our hypotheses. Our findings bridge the environmental conflict literature and the resource curse literature, and offer important policy implications.

现有关于自然灾害与冲突之间关联的研究结论莫衷一是。本文认为，自然灾害是否会损害叛乱团体的韧性，取决于其资金来源与资源开采模式。依赖自然资源获取资金的叛乱团体，更易受到自然灾害的冲击——这类资金来源极易被突发性灾害切断。叛乱团体开发自然资源财富的方式，同样会调节自然灾害对其韧性的影响效应。依赖勒索资源生产的叛乱团体，尽管看似拥有稳定的收入来源，但在严重自然灾害发生后，更有可能出现资金削减。与之相反，依赖走私自然资源的叛乱团体，凭借更高的灵活性与机动性，更有可能在自然灾害中存续下来。本文使用武装团体、自然灾害以及叛乱团体违禁品相关数据对核心论点进行验证，带交互项的logit模型回归结果证实了本文提出的研究假设。本研究的发现搭建起环境冲突研究与资源诅咒研究之间的桥梁，并具有重要的政策启示价值。