Tree lifespans in a warming world: unravelling the universal trade-off between growth and lifespan in temperate forests

Tree growth and lifespan are key determinants of forest dynamics, and ultimately control carbon stocks. Warming and increasing CO2 have been observed to increase growth but such increases may not result in large net biomass gains due to trade-offs between growth and lifespan. A deeper understanding of the nature of the trade-off and its potential spatial variation is crucial to improve predictions of the future carbon sink. This study aims to identify key drivers of growth and lifespan, assess the universality of tree growth-lifespan trade-offs, explore the possible latitudinal patterns of trade-off strengths and their determinants, and project growth and lifespan under future climate scenarios. We analyzed 21,193 trees of 69 species (48 included in further analysis) at 445 sites (417 included in further analysis) in temperate forests in northeastern China to estimate early growth rate and tree lifespan. We find that temperature and human pressure enhance tree growth and reduce lifespan, while altitude increases lifespan. We further find evidence for growth-lifespan trade-offs at all studied levels, i.e. among trees, among species and communities, and within species and communities. Trade-offs are stronger at colder, higher latitudes compared to warmer sites, because of larger variation in tree growth and climate, larger range sizes for individual species and lower species’ diversity for communities at high latitudes. We predict future increases in growth and reductions in tree lifespan in response to climate change for the 2050s. Taking growth lifespan trade-offs into account resulted in even larger predictions of decreases in tree lifespan of up to 8%. In conclusion, growth-lifespan trade-offs are universal, but the strengths may vary by environment and between different forests. Its effects are important to include in predictions of forest responses to global change and need to be considered more widely.树木生长与寿命是森林动态的核心决定因子，最终调控碳储量（carbon stocks）。已有研究表明，气候变暖与CO₂浓度升高可促进树木生长，但由于生长与寿命之间存在权衡（trade-offs），此类生长提升未必能带来显著的净生物量增量。深入解析这类权衡的本质及其潜在空间变异规律，对提升未来碳汇（carbon sink）的预测精度至关重要。本研究旨在明确树木生长与寿命的关键驱动因子，评估树木生长-寿命权衡的普遍性，探究权衡强度的潜在纬度格局及其驱动机制，并预测未来气候情景下的树木生长与寿命变化。我们以中国东北温带森林的445个样地（后续分析纳入417个）中的69个树种（后续分析纳入48个）共21193株树木为研究对象，估算其早期生长速率与树木寿命。研究结果显示，温度与人类活动压力可促进树木生长并缩短其寿命，而海拔升高则会延长树木寿命。我们进一步发现，在所有研究尺度下均存在生长-寿命权衡的证据，即单株树木间、物种间与群落间，以及物种内和群落内均存在该权衡。相较于温暖区域，寒冷高纬度地区的权衡强度更强，这是因为高纬度地区的树木生长与气候变异程度更大、物种种群分布范围更广，且群落的物种多样性更低。我们预测，到21世纪50年代，气候变化将导致树木生长速率提升、寿命缩短。若纳入生长-寿命权衡效应，树木寿命的预测降幅可达8%，较未考虑该效应时更为显著。综上，生长-寿命权衡具有普遍性，但其强度会因环境条件与森林类型而异。在预测森林对全球变化的响应时，需纳入该权衡效应，且应得到更广泛的应用。