<b>Economic and Institutional Factors Influencing Bilateral Trade in Mining and Quarrying Between China and Africa: A Gravity Model Analysis</b>

<i>The mining and quarrying industry is vital to the global economy, providing essential raw materials for many sectors. China is a major importer of African minerals, deepening trade ties with Africa and shaping the economic and political landscape of the two regions. This study examines the economic and institutional factors that affect Africa-China mining and quarrying trade flows from 2010 to 2021, using a trade gravity model with methods such as Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), Random Effects, ET-Tobit, EK-Tobit, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and </i><i>Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood (MPML</i><i>. The results showed that the quality of institutions, especially the level of corruption, played a key role, with high levels of corruption associated with a reduction of up to 34.5% in exports in Africa and 51% in imports in China. Key economic factors, including GDP, the net barter trade index and Chinese FDI, have a positive impact on Africa's export capacity, while population size and GDP per capita show mixed effects on trade dynamics. The present study provides actionable policy recommendations for improving governance in the mining sector, strengthening trade partnerships and promoting sustainable development.</i>矿业与采石业对全球经济至关重要，为诸多行业提供不可或缺的原材料。中国是非洲矿产的主要进口国，持续深化与非洲的贸易联系，并塑造着两大区域的经济与政治格局。本研究聚焦2010至2021年中非矿业与采石业的贸易流量影响因素，采用贸易引力模型，结合可行广义最小二乘法（Feasible Generalized Least Squares, FGLS）、随机效应模型、ET-Tobit模型、EK-Tobit模型、泊松伪极大似然估计（Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, PPML）以及多项泊松极大似然估计（Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood, MPML）等方法开展分析。研究结果显示，制度质量尤其是腐败水平发挥着关键作用：高腐败水平可使非洲对华出口最高降低34.5%，使中国自非洲进口最高降低51%。核心经济因素包括国内生产总值（GDP）、易货贸易净指数（net barter trade index）以及中国对外直接投资（Chinese FDI），均对非洲出口能力产生正向影响；而人口规模与人均GDP则对贸易动态呈现混合效应。本研究可为完善矿业领域治理、强化贸易伙伴关系以及推动可持续发展提供切实可行的政策建议。