Future Ecosystem Services in Germany: A Model-based Approach Using Agricultural Change Scenarios

Here, the effects of future agriculture change scenarios (ACS) on two biodiversity-related ES (pollination supply, habitat quality) and crop production as a proxy for food security in 2015 (Baseline) and 2050 (LaC, LFLN, LfS) were modelled. The modelling approach was applied, incorporating the three ACS and detailed background information on the selected ES. Pollination sypply and habitat quality were modelled with InVEST (Natural Capital Project, 2025), while crop production was derived from NDVI-based methods (Ai et al., 2024b; Qiu et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2024a). Model outputs were evaluated with respect to (1) changes in overall and spatial ES supply, (2) the extent and distribution of ES hotspot areas, and (3) the overall relationships and proportions of synergistic relationships among ES within each ACS.本研究模拟了2015年（基准期，Baseline）与2050年的三种未来农业变化情景（LaC、LFLN、LfS）对两项与生物多样性相关的生态系统服务（Ecosystem Services, ES）——授粉供给与生境质量——以及作为粮食安全代理指标的作物生产的影响。本研究采用的建模框架整合了这三种农业变化情景（Agriculture Change Scenarios, ACS）与所选生态系统服务的详细背景信息。其中，授粉供给与生境质量通过InVEST模型（自然资本项目组，2025）实现模拟，作物生产则基于归一化差分植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI）相关方法推导得出（Ai等，2024b；Qiu等，2021；Yang等，2024a）。最后，研究从以下三方面对模型输出结果开展评估：（1）生态系统服务整体供给与空间分布的变化；（2）生态系统服务热点区域的范围与分布格局；（3）各农业变化情景下生态系统服务间协同关系的整体特征与占比。