Data from: Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology: nonlinear effects of temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate

Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match bud burst of the host tree. In the winter moth, as in many insect species, egg development is strongly affected by ambient temperatures. Here we use laboratory experiments to show for the first time that the effect of temperature on developmental rate depends on the stage of development of the eggs. Building on this experimental finding, we present a novel physiological model to describe winter moth egg development in response to temperature. Our model, a modification of the existing Sharpe−Schoolfield biophysical model, incorporates the effect of developmental stage on developmental rate. Next we validate this model using a 13-year data-set from winter moth eggs kept under ambient conditions and compared this validation with a degree day model and with the Sharpe−Schoolfield model, which lacks the interaction between temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate. We show that accounting for the interaction between temperature and developmental stage improved the predictive power of the model and contributed to our understanding of annual variation in winter moth egg phenology. As climate change leads to unequal changes in temperatures throughout the year, a description of insect development in response to realistic patterns of temperature rather than an invariable degree-day approach will help us to better predict future responses of insect phenology, and thereby insect fitness, to climate change.

探明昆虫发育速率与温度之间的关联，对于预测气候变化背景下的昆虫物候至关重要。冬季蛾（Operophtera brumata）的卵孵化时间需与寄主树木的芽期同步，否则会对其生长与繁殖产生严重的适合度影响。与多数昆虫物种一致，冬季蛾的卵发育过程显著受环境温度调控。本研究首次通过实验室实验证实：温度对发育速率的影响取决于卵的发育阶段。基于该实验发现，我们构建了一款全新的生理学模型，用于描述冬季蛾卵在温度响应下的发育过程。本模型是对现有夏普-斯考菲尔德（Sharpe−Schoolfield）生物物理模型的改进，纳入了发育阶段对发育速率的调控效应。随后，我们采用13年野外自然条件下饲养的冬季蛾卵数据集对该模型进行验证，并将其与度日模型（degree day model）以及未考虑温度与发育阶段对发育速率交互效应的原始夏普-斯考菲尔德模型进行对比。结果表明，纳入温度与发育阶段的交互效应可提升模型的预测效能，有助于我们解析冬季蛾卵物候的年度变异规律。随着气候变化导致全年温度分布不均，相较于固定度日模型，基于真实温度模式的昆虫发育刻画方法，将助力我们更精准地预测未来昆虫物候乃至昆虫适合度对气候变化的响应。