DurableConsumption_BankFailures_Newspapers

This
paper explores simultaneous developments in the banking sector and the real
economy during the Great Depression and whether these are related to shifts in
beliefs about economic prospects. It
identifies a notable coincidence of bank closures and declines in consumer
durable consumption (new automobile purchases) in Ohio in the early 1930s. To examine whether shifts in beliefs and the
economic concerns of households and businesses may have mattered, I test
whether keywords from local newspapers related to economic prospects or
sentiments are associated with subsequent bank closures and declines in
automobile purchases. The results support
the idea that beliefs mattered, even after accounting for economic
fundamentals. The analysis also
highlights the importance of local economic conditions in determining behavior.

本文探讨了大萧条时期银行业与实体经济的同步发展态势，以及二者是否与经济前景信念的转变存在关联。研究发现，1930年代初期俄亥俄州的银行停业与消费者耐用品消费（新车购置）的下滑存在显著的重合现象。为验证家庭与企业的信念转变及经济关切是否会产生影响，本文检验了当地报纸中与经济前景或情绪相关的关键词，是否与后续的银行停业及汽车购置下滑存在关联。研究结果证实，即便在控制了经济基本面因素之后，信念因素依然发挥了重要作用。本分析同时凸显了地方经济条件在决定主体行为方面的重要性。