GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of ECMWF, 0-month lead time (version 1.0.0)

This layer provides an early warning of extreme temperature conditions over the world based on accumulated intensity of daily temperature exceedances of the forecast with lead times ranging from 0 to 3 months. These are derived from the forecasted daily maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the 10th/90th percentile of the climatology provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The early warning is plotted only when and where the forecast is considered robust (with at least 40% of the ensemble members associated with extreme forecasts) and associated with relative extreme values (based on hindcasts). The colors indicate the return period of the intensity and the coherency of the ensemble members of the forecast model according to the reference period that spans from 1993 to 2016.

本数据集图层基于提前时效0至3个月的预报中，日温超阈值的累积强度，为全球极端气温状况提供早期预警。该预警的计算依据为欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF）通过哥白尼气候变化服务（Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S）提供的气候学第10/90百分位阈值，与预报的日最高、最低气温的相对值。仅当预报具备稳健性（即至少40%的集合成员对应极端预报结果）且与基于回溯预报得到的相对极端值相关时，才会绘制该早期预警图层。配色用于表征强度的重现期，以及以1993至2016年为参考期的预报模式集合成员一致性。