GroMoPo Metadata for Variconi Coastal Wetland model

Coastal freshwater resources are commonly under high risk of being contaminated from seawater. The main processes that affect seawater intrusion are groundwater overexploitation, land use change, and climate change effects. In this context coastal lagoons represent the more sensitive environments prone to seawater intrusion. Numerical modelling is a useful tool to understand and predict seawater intrusion. In this study, a three-dimensional SEAWAT model is employed to simulate the seawater intrusion to coastal aquifers of Variconi Oasis (Italy). The present simulation was divided into a calibration and a validation model, then the model was used to predict the salinization trend up to 2050. Results show the role of the sea in salinizing the beach front, while the retrodunal environment is characterized by transitional environments. Future seawater intrusion scenarios considering only climate data showed no significative differences in respect to the actual situation. The same happens considering also a low sea level rise prediction. On the contrary, the worst scenario (high sea level rise prediction), depicts a quite different situation, with a saline intrusion in the Variconi oasis that will severely affect the fragile transitional ecosystem. This modelling framework can be used to quantify the effects of climate changes in similar coastal environments.

沿海淡水资源普遍面临海水污染的高风险。影响海水入侵的主要驱动过程包括地下水超采、土地利用变化与气候变化效应。在此背景下，沿海潟湖（coastal lagoons）是最易受海水入侵影响的敏感生态环境。数值模拟是理解和预测海水入侵的有效工具。本研究采用三维SEAWAT模型，模拟意大利瓦里科尼绿洲（Variconi Oasis）沿海含水层的海水入侵过程。本次模拟分为校准与验证两个阶段，随后利用该模型预测至2050年的盐渍化趋势。研究结果表明，海洋对海滩前缘的盐渍化具有显著作用，而丘后环境则以过渡性生态系统为典型特征。仅考虑气候数据的未来海水入侵情景，与当前实际状况相比无显著差异；若同时纳入海平面小幅上升的预测情景，结果亦无明显变化。与之相反，最极端的情景（海平面大幅上升预测）则呈现出截然不同的局面：瓦里科尼绿洲将发生盐水入侵，严重威胁其脆弱的过渡性生态系统。该建模框架可用于量化气候变化对同类沿海生态环境的影响。