Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2015

Overview \r\n The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia’s key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in June 2015. \r\n\r\nFarmer/stakeholder implications \r\n The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers. \r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n Commodity forecasts \r\n• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.1 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $52.8 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $49.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 11 per cent in 2015-16 to $29.1 billion following an estimated increase of 15 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. \r\n• The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 4 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16, which mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. \r\n• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015-16 to $28.1 billion. This reflects an expected increase of 5 per cent in the volume index of crop production. \r\n• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $43.4 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 14 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• These forecast increases are expected to be offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (4 per cent to $2.4 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (2 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (8 per cent to $1.1 billion), cotton (33 per cent to $1.0 billion) and mutton (13 per cent to $0.7 billion). \r\n• Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. \r\n• The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed decline in the Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar. \r\n• In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, chickpeas and mutton are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline. \r\n

概览
《农业大宗商品》（Agricultural commodities）九月刊收录了澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences，ABARES）对2015-2016财年澳大利亚主要农业大宗商品的最新展望，并更新了该局2015年6月发布的此前展望内容。

农户与利益相关方影响
本报告提供高质量且时效性强的信息，助力初级生产者通过科学决策提升农场端收益。

核心议题
大宗商品预测
• 2015-2016财年农场生产总值预估将增长8%，达到约571亿澳元；2014-2015财年该数值预计增长4%至528亿澳元。按名义价值计算，2015-2016财年的农场生产总值将较截至2014-15财年的五年间平均值（492亿澳元）高出约16%。
• 2015-2016财年畜牧业生产总值预估将增长约11%，达到291亿澳元；2014-2015财年该数值预计增长15%。此次预估增长主要源于肉牛、羔羊、绵羊及羊毛的农场出厂价格预期上涨。
• 农场出厂价格的预估涨幅将足以抵消2015-2016财年畜牧业生产量指数4%的预估降幅——该降幅主要基于假设：2015-2016财年下半年气候条件更优，将推动畜牧群与羊群复养，从而减少屠宰量。
• 2015-2016财年农作物生产总值预估将增长5%，达到281亿澳元，这主要源于农作物生产量指数预计增长5%。
• 2015-2016财年农业大宗商品出口收益预估约为434亿澳元；2014-2015财年该收益预计增长6%至435亿澳元。按名义价值计算，2015-2016财年的农业大宗商品出口收益将较截至2014-15财年的五年间平均值（382亿澳元）高出约14%。
• 上述整体预估增长将被以下品类的出口收益降幅部分抵消：牛肉与小牛肉（下降3%至86亿澳元）、乳制品（下降4%至24亿澳元）、羔羊（下降1%至17亿澳元）、食糖（下降2%至14亿澳元）、活育肥牛/屠宰牛（下降8%至11亿澳元）、棉花（下降33%至10亿澳元）以及羊肉（下降13%至7亿澳元）。
• 水产品出口收益预估将在2015-2016财年增长11%，达到约16亿澳元；2014-2015财年该收益预计增长10%至14亿澳元。
• 澳大利亚农场出口单位收益指数预估将在2015-2016财年上涨4%，2014-2015财年该指数预计上涨6%。2015-2016财年的预估上涨主要源于澳元汇率（尤其是对美元汇率）的假设性下跌所带来的影响。
• 以澳元计价，牛肉与小牛肉、羊毛、葡萄酒、羔羊、油菜籽、活育肥牛/屠宰牛、岩龙虾、鹰嘴豆及羊肉的出口价格预计在2015-2016财年上涨。与之相反，小麦、大麦、食糖、棉花及乳制品的出口价格预计下跌。