File S1 - Potential Future Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine in a Southern African Setting

Supplementary Methods and Results. (i) Brief description of HIV Synthesis Heterosexual Transmission Model for southern Africa, (ii) Epidemic scenario modelled, (iii) Vaccine and implementation characteristics, (iv) Full model details, (v) Parameters and distributions for uncertainty analysis, (vi) Table S1 (Mean over 2040–2060 of the following outcomes: HIV incidence (per 1000 person years), prevalence (%), % of whole population on ART (not only HIV infected), death rate (in whole population; per 100 person years), % of uninfected population age 15–65 with an on-going vaccine effect (i.e. vaccinated and up to date with boosters), 2040–2060, according to vaccination efficacy and implementation characteristics. 95% CI shown in grey), (vii) Figure S1 (Predicted outcomes 2025–2060 of eight vaccine introduction scenarios in 2025: (i) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 0.0 log10, (ii) prevention efficacy 0.3, viral load efficacy 0.0 log10, (iii) prevention efficacy 0.5, viral load efficacy 0.0 log10, (iv) prevention efficacy 0.9, viral load efficacy 0.0 log10, (v) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 1.0 log10, (vi) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 2.0 log10, (vii) prevention efficacy 0.5, viral load efficacy 1.0 log10, (viii) prevention efficacy 0.9, viral load efficacy 2.0 log10. All in the context of vaccination at 15, with a rate of vaccination per 3 months of 0.3 amongst those age 15–17 (and a 5 year catch-up program amongst adults age 18–30 covering 50% of the population of that age), with a maximum coverage (in 15–17 year olds) of 0.7, and with regular boosters every 5 years (the assumed duration of vaccine effect) with 80% of people being adherent to these boosts. See footnote for full description of variable definition).
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