Análise da Evolução do Valor dos Financiamentos do Pronaf-Crédito (1999 a 2010): número, valor médio e localização geográfica dos contratos

The inequality of credit distribution of Pronaf, between regions and types of family farmers, has been indicated in many studies. To investigate this question, the research analyzes the evolution of Pronaf credit financings in Brazil, facing its decomposition in the effects number of contracts, average value of contracts and geographic localization. It can be concluded that, in the initial phase of the Program, a great increase in the contract number was verified, with dispersion of financings for states of poorer family farming, situated mainly in the Northeastern region in Brazil. This expansion continued until 2006, also followed, since 2003, by the increase in the average size of contracts. Since then, the expansion of the credit has been based exclusively on the increase of the average size of contracts and on the growing participation of states of capitalized agriculture in its distribution. As a result of this change, which may be associated with changes in the rules of the program, the inequality of the distribution of its financings is increasing.

多项研究均已证实，巴西家庭农业扶持信贷计划（Pronaf）的信贷资金在不同区域与家庭农场类型间的分配存在不均衡现象。为探究这一问题，本研究针对巴西Pronaf信贷资金的演化趋势展开分析，并从信贷合同数量、合同平均额度与地理分布三个维度对其影响效应进行拆解。研究结果显示，在该计划实施初期，信贷合同数量实现大幅增长，信贷资金也向以巴西东北部地区为主的家庭农业欠发达州份倾斜。这一扩张态势持续至2006年，且自2003年起，信贷合同的平均额度同步实现提升。自2006年之后，信贷规模的扩张仅依赖于合同平均额度的增长，同时农业资本较为充裕的州份在信贷分配中的占比持续攀升。这一变化或与计划规则的调整相关，其直接后果是Pronaf信贷资金分配的不均衡程度不断加剧。