Fiscal policy in Dilma Rousseff’s first government:orthodoxy and regression

Abstract The years 2011-14 mark a slowing down of the Brazilian economy, despite the apparent maintenance of the developmentalist model that sustained growth and faced the international crisis over the period 2004-10. Since then, the interpretation that this situation showed the breakdown of the developmentalist model, especially in the fiscal area, has become dominant. The same expansion strategies of public spending and tax cuts that stimulated growth since 2004 no longer have leverage effects. This paper questions this widespread interpretation using a Keynesian approach of the fiscal policy during Dilma Rousseff’s government (2011-14). It concludes that it was apparently only expansionary, contributing in practice to the economic downturn. Therefore it is not a case of ineffectiveness but rather unsuitable conservative fiscal policy, unable to face the uncertainties of the 2011-14 period.摘要 2011至2014年，尽管支撑2004-2010年间经济增长并应对国际危机的发展主义模式（developmentalist model）表面上仍在延续，但巴西经济却呈现出放缓态势。自此之后，认为这一态势表明该发展主义模式（尤其是财政领域）已然失效的解读逐渐占据主流。自2004年以来曾拉动经济增长的公共支出扩张与减税政策，如今已不再具备政策拉动效应。本文基于迪尔玛·罗塞夫政府（2011-2014年）执政时期的财政政策凯恩斯主义分析框架（Keynesian approach），对这一广为流传的解读提出质疑。研究结论表明，该政策看似仅具备扩张性，实则反而加剧了经济下行。因此，这并非政策失效的案例，而是采用了不合时宜的保守主义财政政策（conservative fiscal policy），无法应对2011-2014年间的各类不确定性。