Local government debt expansion and enterprise total factor productivity.zip

To enhance understanding of local government debt issues under high-quality development, this paper examines the relationship between local government debt expansion and enterprise total factor productivity (TFP) using data from prefecture-level cities and Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2019. Results reveal a significant inverse U-shaped relationship, driven by positive innovation effects and negative resource misallocation effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this relationship is particularly evident in state-owned enterprises, firms with low financing constraints, firms with low equity concentration, and enterprises located in central and western regions. This study evaluates the optimal debt balance and offers policy recommendations to mitigate fiscal risks.

为深化对高质量发展背景下地方政府债务问题的认知，本文采用2003年至2019年地级市层面数据以及沪深A股上市公司样本，考察地方政府债务扩张与企业全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity，TFP）之间的关联。研究结果显示二者存在显著的倒U型关系，该关系由正向创新效应与负向资源错配效应共同驱动。异质性分析表明，这一关联在国有企业、融资约束较低的企业、股权集中度较低的企业以及中西部地区的企业中尤为显著。本研究测算得到最优债务规模，并提出了防范化解财政风险的政策建议。