Source Data for Emerging waste challenges of global renewable infrastructure towards net-zero ambitions

The rapid expansion of global renewable energy systems has led to a significant increase in raw material extraction, manufacturing and the potential generation of substantial new types of waste. However, a comprehensive analysis of future trends and distribution of emerging Renewable energy Waste (ReWaste) is lacking. This study introduces an integrated Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-ReWaste) that incorporates material flow analysis (MFA) to address this gap, covering 20 renewable energy technologies across 30 regions worldwide. Additionally, the model integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) to explore the environmental and economic impacts of treating upcoming ReWaste streams under three recycling scenarios. The results reveal a 37-fold surge in global ReWaste, rising from 2.8 million metric tons (Mt) in 2020 to 102.7 Mt by 2050, cumulating in a staggering total of 1,094 Mt to achieve the net-zero emissions target. China, the United States, the European Union, and India will account for 66% of the global ReWaste total. The ReWaste will contain substantial recyclable materials, which could potentially cover 45%-75% of their demand by 2050. The thriving ReWaste recycling market could reach a value of US$827–1,157 billion and contribute to a reduction in carbon emissions by as much as 1,004–1,681 Mt CO₂-equivalent. However, there are many challenges associated with ReWaste management, including the dispersed distribution of waste generation, diversity and ongoing evolution of renewable technologies, financial viability and immature recycling technologies and policies. Therefore, concerted efforts taken by all the stakeholders across the entire lifecycle, including manufacturers, recyclers and policy-makers are necessary to cope with the surge of ReWaste.全球可再生能源系统的快速扩张，不仅推动了原材料开采与制造业的显著增长，还大幅增加了新型废弃物的潜在产生规模。然而，当前针对新兴可再生能源废弃物（Renewable energy Waste, ReWaste）的未来趋势与空间分布的全面分析仍存在空白。 本研究提出了一款集成物质流分析（Material Flow Analysis, MFA）的全球变化分析模型（Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM-ReWaste），以填补这一研究缺口；该模型覆盖全球30个地区、20种可再生能源技术。此外，该模型还整合了生命周期评价（Life Cycle Assessment, LCA）方法，用于探究三种回收场景下，待处理的可再生能源废弃物流对环境与经济造成的影响。 研究结果显示，全球可再生能源废弃物的年度产生量将增长37倍：从2020年的280万公吨（2.8 Mt）攀升至2050年的1.027亿公吨（102.7 Mt）；若要实现净零排放目标，2020至2050年间累计产生的可再生能源废弃物总量将高达10.94亿公吨（1,094 Mt）。中国、美国、欧盟与印度将贡献全球可再生能源废弃物总量的66%。此类废弃物中蕴含大量可回收材料，到2050年可满足对应原材料45%~75%的需求。蓬勃发展的可再生能源废弃物回收市场规模有望达到8270亿~11570亿美元，同时可减少10.04亿~16.81亿吨二氧化碳当量的碳排放。 不过，可再生能源废弃物管理仍面临诸多挑战：包括废弃物产生分布分散、可再生能源技术种类繁多且持续迭代、回收技术与相关政策尚不成熟，以及经济可行性不足等问题。因此，制造商、回收企业与政策制定者等全生命周期各利益相关方需协同发力，以应对可再生能源废弃物的快速增长。