Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications

Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4x the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture as well as wild, traditional and country food species. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea) and one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos) and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries is also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation associated variables. V. vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.

气候变化已是毋庸置疑的既定事实，正持续重塑全球生态系统；加拿大的变暖速率更是达到全球平均水平的2至4倍。这将对浆果种植与园艺产业，以及野生、传统及本土食用物种带来极为关键的影响。加深我们对野生与栽培浆果响应机制的认知，对缓解气候变化对生态系统、文化及粮食安全的影响至关重要。本研究旨在预测气候变化对4种浆果生产用越橘属（Vaccinium）物种栖息地适宜性的影响：涵盖2个主要分布于北半球的物种（V. uliginosum、V. vitis-idaea）、1个主要分布于南半球的物种（V. oxycoccos），以及商业化栽培的大果越橘（V. macrocarpon，即商业蔓越莓）。本研究采用最大熵模型（maximum entropy, maxent），并使用预估至2041-2060年、2061-2080年的CMIP6共享社会经济路径（shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs）126与585情景开展分析。野生越橘物种的适宜栖息地呈现出统一的北移扩张态势。模型预测，商业蔓越莓的适宜种植区同样将发生迁移：部分现有农场将无法适配当前种植品种，而其他区域则更适宜开展蔓越莓种植。大果越橘与V. oxycoccos均高度依赖与降水相关的气候变量。V. vitis-idaea与V. uliginosum则受更多贡献度较低的气候变量影响，这或可提升其对单一气候事件的抗逆能力。未来，商业蔓越莓农场与保护区内的野生浆果之间或产生竞争，进而引发农业生产与生态保护优先级之间的冲突。为维持现有商业浆果种植场的正常运营，亟需培育适配的新型商业浆果品种。