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This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global phase transition, resulting in the World System making a transition to a qualitatively new phase, with the emergence of new patterns that are not taken into account by forecasting systems developed before its beginning.<br>

本文对社会政治不稳定预测系统开展对比研究。研究通过将各系统针对特定年份的预测结果与对应年份的实际动荡水平进行关联，系统性地对比了其预测效能。结果表明，此类系统的预测能力在2011年后出现了显著下滑。进一步分析显示，该现象与2011年阿拉伯之春（Arab Spring）触发全球相变存在关联：世界体系由此跃迁至全新的质态阶段，涌现出一批在该事件发生前开发的预测系统未纳入考量的新型模式。