Data_Sheet_2_A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Strategic Planning at the Swiss Forest Enterprise Level: Coping With Climate Change and Shifting Demands in Ecosystem Service Provisioning.docx

Sustainable forest management plays a key role for forest biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services (BES), including the important service of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. Forest managers, however, find themselves in the increasingly complex planning situation to balance the often conflicting demands in BES. To cope with this situation, a prototype of a decision support system (DSS) for strategic (long-term) planning at the forest enterprise level was developed in the present project. The DSS was applied at three case study enterprises (CSEs) in Northern Switzerland, two lowland and one higher-elevation enterprise, for a 50-year time horizon (2010 to 2060) under present climate and three climate change scenarios (‘wet’, ‘medium’, ‘dry’). BES provisioning (for biodiversity, timber production, recreation, protection against gravitational hazards and carbon sequestration) was evaluated for four management scenarios (no management, current (BAU), lower and higher management intensity) using a utility-based multi-criteria decision analysis. Additionally, four alternative preference scenarios for BES provisioning were investigated to evaluate the robustness of the results to shifting BES preferences. At all CSEs, synergies between carbon sequestration, biodiversity and protection function as well as trade-offs between carbon sequestration and timber production occurred. The BAU management resulted in the highest overall utility in 2060 for different climate and BES preference scenarios, with the exception of one lowland CSE under current BES preference, where a lower intensity management performed best. Although climate change had a relatively small effect on overall utility, individual BES indicators showed a negative climate change impact for the lowland CSEs and a positive effect for the higher elevation CSE. The patterns of overall utility were relatively stable to shifts in BES preferences, with exception of a shift toward a preference for carbon sequestration. Overall, the study demonstrates the potential of the DSS to investigate the development of multiple BES as well as their synergies and trade-offs for a set of lowland and mountainous forest enterprises. The new system incorporates a wide set of BES indicators, a strong empirical foundation and a flexible multi-criteria decision analysis, enabling stakeholders to take scientifically well-founded decisions under changing climatic conditions and political goals.

可持续森林管理对于森林生物多样性与生态系统服务（biodiversity and ecosystem services, BES）的供给至关重要，其中碳固存服务是助力气候变化减缓的关键生态系统服务之一。然而，森林管理者正面临日益复杂的规划困境，需要权衡生物多样性与生态系统服务间时常存在的冲突需求。为应对这一困境，本研究项目开发了一款面向森林经营企业层面的战略（长期）规划决策支持系统（decision support system, DSS）原型。该决策支持系统在瑞士北部的三家案例研究企业（case study enterprises, CSEs）中开展应用：两家为低海拔经营企业，一家为高海拔经营企业，模拟时段为2010至2060年的50年周期，涵盖当前气候情景以及“湿润”“中等”“干燥”三类气候变化情景。研究采用基于效用的多准则决策分析，对四类经营情景下的生物多样性与生态系统服务供给情况进行评估，四类情景分别为：无经营、常规经营（business as usual, BAU）、低经营强度以及高经营强度，评估的服务类型涵盖生物多样性、木材生产、游憩服务、重力灾害防护以及碳固存。此外，研究还设置了四类生物多样性与生态系统服务供给偏好情景，以检验研究结果在生物多样性与生态系统服务偏好发生偏移时的稳健性。在三家案例研究企业中，均观测到碳固存、生物多样性与防护功能间存在协同效应，同时碳固存与木材生产间存在权衡关系。在不同气候情景与生物多样性与生态系统服务偏好情景下，常规经营模式在2060年时均能实现最高的综合效用，仅有一种例外情况：在当前生物多样性与生态系统服务偏好情景下的某家低海拔案例研究企业中，低经营强度模式的综合效用最优。尽管气候变化对综合效用的影响相对较小，但单个生物多样性与生态系统服务指标显示：气候变化对低海拔案例研究企业产生了负面影响，而对高海拔案例研究企业产生了正面影响。综合效用的分布格局在生物多样性与生态系统服务偏好发生偏移时相对稳定，仅当偏好转向碳固存时例外。总体而言，本研究验证了该决策支持系统的应用潜力：其可用于评估多类生物多样性与生态系统服务的发展态势，以及低海拔与山地森林经营企业中各类服务间的协同与权衡关系。该新型系统涵盖了丰富的生物多样性与生态系统服务指标体系、坚实的实证基础以及灵活的多准则决策分析模块，能够帮助利益相关方在气候变化与政策目标不断变化的背景下，做出具备科学依据的决策。