Is the balance of payments a restriction to the economic growth of Brazilian states? An analysis for the 1991-2009 period

ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether there is a restriction imposed by the balance of payments - through the relationship between income elasticities of imports and exports - on the economic growth of Brazilian states. In other words, it checks the validity of Thirlwall’s Law to the Brazilian states in the period from 1991 to 2009. These elasticities were estimated using the dynamic panel estimator System-GMM, which circumvents the classical endogeneity problem inherent to dynamic panels. The results point out to the validity of the law, since the income elasticity of imports was higher than the income elasticity of exports.

摘要 本研究旨在探讨国际收支是否通过进出口收入弹性之间的关联，对巴西各州的经济增长构成约束。换言之，本研究检验了1991年至2009年间瑟尔沃尔定律（Thirlwall’s Law）在巴西各州的适用性。本研究采用动态面板估计方法系统广义矩估计（System-GMM）对上述弹性进行估算，该方法可规避动态面板固有的经典内生性问题。研究结果证实了该定律的适用性，因为进口收入弹性高于出口收入弹性。