GroMoPo Metadata for Adige River Valley MODFLOW model

Evaluating the sustainability of water uses in shallow aquifers is fundamental for both environmental and socio-economic reasons. Groundwater models are the main tools to sustain informed management plans, yet simulation results are affected by both epistemic and parametric uncertainties. In this study, we aim at investigating the effect of model uncertainties on three assessment criteria: depth to water (DTW), recharge/discharge analysis and a newly defined sustainability index S. We consider, as a case study, the shallow aquifer of the Adige Valley, which is highly influenced by surface water dynamics, water withdrawals from pumping wells and a dense network of ditches. Both direct measurements and soft data are used to reduce uncertainty associated to the limited knowledge about the spatial distribution of the hydraulic parameters. Simulation results showed that the aquifer is chiefly influenced by the interaction with the Adige River and that the influence of anthropogenic activities on vulnerability of groundwater resources varies within the study area. This calls for differentiated approaches to water resources management. Uncertainty related to the three assessment criteria is chiefly controlled by uncertainty of the hydrogeological model, although it depends also on the strategy adopted for the management of water resources.

从环境与社会经济维度而言，评估浅层含水层用水可持续性均具有核心意义。地下水数值模型是支撑科学合理水资源管理方案的核心工具，但模拟结果同时受认知不确定性与参数不确定性的影响。本研究旨在探究模型不确定性对三项评估指标的影响：地下水埋深（Depth to Water, DTW）、补径排分析，以及新定义的可持续性指数S。本研究以阿迪杰河谷浅层含水层为案例研究区，该区域受地表水动态变化、机井取水以及密集沟渠网络的强烈影响。本研究结合直接实测数据与软数据（Soft Data），以降低因水文地质参数空间分布认知不足所带来的不确定性。模拟结果表明，该含水层主要受与阿迪杰河的水文交互作用影响，且人类活动对地下水资源脆弱性的影响在研究区内存在空间异质性。这意味着需针对研究区制定差异化的水资源管理策略。三项评估指标相关的不确定性主要由水文地质模型的不确定性主导，但同时也受水资源管理策略的影响。