The evolution of industrial credit in Brazil: an analisis based on ok macroeconomic factors

This work aimed at analyzing the influence of macroeconomic variables on the amount of credit to manufacturing industries in the post-Real period. As a scenario for the discussion there is, on one side, the decreasing trajectory of industrial credit in recent years and, on the other, the expansionary monetary policies. To achieve that goal, a vector autoregressive model with error correction was employed, which allowed the analysis of short and long-term dynamics. Results suggest that the recurring influence of the exchange rate and the aggregated product explains the behavior of credit operations in Brazilian economy, in both the short and long term. Furthermore, results also reveal the more prolonged effects of product over industrial credit, while variables related to politics, except exchange rate, produce temporary effects.

本研究旨在分析后雷亚尔时期内，宏观经济变量对制造业信贷规模的影响。本次研究的讨论场景设定为：一方面是近年来制造业信贷的下行趋势，另一方面则是扩张性货币政策的施行。为达成上述研究目标，本研究采用了带误差修正的向量自回归模型（Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction），以此开展短期与长期动态关系分析。研究结果表明，汇率与总产出的持续性影响可解释巴西经济中信贷业务的运行态势，无论短期还是长期均成立。此外，研究结果还显示，总产出对制造业信贷的影响更为持久；而除汇率外的其他政策相关变量仅会产生暂时性影响。